差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

交易員可以尋找黃金價格的低點

此前黃金價格未能跟隨股市走高,但現在正在上演反彈。

1700美元原本是金價的關鍵阻力位,上週的底部為金價進一步上漲提供了可能。

黃金周圖

gold weekly chart

對黃金來說,關鍵事件可能是周四的美國通脹報告。如果通脹率低於預期,那麼市場將看到美聯儲大幅加息的結束。金價可能在未來幾週出現反彈,首個目標位為每盎司1800美元。

在美聯儲主席鮑威爾表示利率在達到峰值前“還有一段路要走”之後,這是一份美國最新的通脹數據,預計將從8.2%下降到8%。

對黃金而言,另一個問題是美國中期選舉,如果選舉結果被推遲或存在爭議。黃金可以作為政治避風港受益。黃金的走勢也將取決於選舉贏家之後的支出計劃。

美國大選可能導致民主黨和共和黨之間出現政府的分歧,這可能對股市和風險資產有利。一個分裂的政府可能會帶來僵局,而不是重大的支出政策改變。歷史上的情況是,當民主黨掌權的白宮與分裂的國會或共和黨掌權的國會共享權力時,股市會更加強勁。

例如,拜登政府一直嚴格要求對富人增稅,並停止石油鑽探。僵局實際上對企業有利,並可能損害美元。

根據世界黃金協會的數據,另一個看漲黃金的因素是,各國央行在第一季度買入了400噸黃金。這是一個創紀錄的資金流入,通常他們會在一年多的時間裡購買這些資金。

土耳其增加了95.5噸黃金儲備,埃及增加了44.8噸。印度是另一個大買家增加了40.5噸。

投資者現在可以把注意力轉移到通脹數據上了,任何低於8%的數據都是樂觀的。

美國中期選舉結果公佈可能會推遲,但一個共享的政府可能會減少人們對政府大開支的擔憂,而民主黨的獲勝可能會加劇這種擔憂。

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