差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

國際油價經歷連降後或整固,關注各國製造業PMI或帶來油價震盪

上周初國際原油價格一度經歷連續下跌,美油期貨從91.52美元跌至周三所見低位85.45美元,觸及今年2月份以來的最低,布蘭特期油也錄得2月份以來最低位,也是俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前以來的最低點。雖然周末前國際油價跌幅縮減, 回升至88美元之上, 但當前油價走勢仍然缺乏大漲理由, 主要原因相信是受以下因素影響, 短期內油價走勢仍看疲弱或在低位整固。 

自今年6月初, 美國油價從最高121美元輾轉下滑, 上周低見86美元以下, 最主要下行的原因在於各國主要經濟數據顯示不同程度出現放緩, 市場擔憂原油需求前景進一步受壓。加上維持高企的通脹水平與及各國央行表明繼續加息, 料影響未來經濟增長前景和各行業出現收縮。而早前OPEC在每月例會中宣布, 將每日原先產量120萬桶原油調高至130萬桶, 增加10萬桶, 增幅不高但其他主要產油國產量據報上升。如沙特阿拉伯6月份原油出口上升,而產量則升至兩年多來的高點。今年俄羅斯能源出口收益將增長38%,部分原因也是石油出口量增加,這表明俄羅斯供應沒有市場最初預期的那麼大, 也使市場擔憂原油供應過剩問題產生從而影響油價上升。另外, 美元手持續上升也讓大宗商品價格普遍承壓。 

雖然短期油價依然維持低迷勢頭,不過有分析認為在油價連續承壓之後會有企穩的勢頭,等待反彈的催化劑。例如伊朗核談判未見最新進展,市場普遍認為近期達成協議的可能性不大。高盛指出,即使達成協議,明年之前也不會有額外的石油供應,因為可能會“分階段實施”,最早也要到2023年初才能恢復石油供應。本周各國的最新製造業及服務業PMI數據足以對油價帶來短線影響,而除了經濟數據外需求面因素也可能是提振的關鍵, 早前公布美國石油庫存大幅下降可能提振油價。截至8月12日當周,美國原油庫存減少710萬桶,降幅大幅超預期,因出口觸及500萬桶/日的紀錄高位。EIA資料顯示前周的日均隱含需求增加22.5萬桶,因近期汽油價格疲弱為需求提供了一些支撐。另一關注點是, 歐洲冬季燃料需求急升的可能。歐盟將於12月生效的對俄羅斯原油禁運,讓其進一步面臨著冬季燃料的短缺。考慮到其他中東產油國供應更多含硫原油的能力有限,其缺口難以彌補,除非伊朗方面在此之前達成核協定加大出口,能緩和部分的供應緊張的壓力,否則步入冬季來臨油價將可能再次被推高。 

當前美國原油價格維持低位的整固,如果油價重新站上日圖的20日均線92美元之上,會是吸引更多買盤跟進的關鍵,若突破92美元, 下一關鍵阻力將在98美元。支撐位方面,如果下破前低位85.45美元,則可能威脅油價下探81美元的支撐位。

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