差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

日央行決議來襲,如何交易美元/日元

在亞洲市場,日本央行將公佈利率決定前,美元兌日元將獲得重要數據指引。

日本目前的利率是-0.1%,央行行長最近表示利率不會很快上升。

USDJPY週圖

USDJPY - Weekly Chart

美元兌日元在最近的美元下跌後呈現出看跌的基調。上面的周線圖強調了交易員可以瞄準日本央行意外消息的關鍵水平。

去年12月,日本央行改變了其收益率曲線控制(YCC),將10年期國債的上限從0.25%提高到0.50%,震驚了市場。該政策自2016年起生效,最新舉動令交易員措手不及。

一些主要銀行一直在權衡他們對這次會議的期望:

“在去年12月出人意料地決定擴大收益率曲線區間後,預計日本央行將維持現狀。日本央行行長黑田東彥未來的指引將保持鴿派立場,但除此之外,市場似乎預期下一任日本央行行長將採取更多的正常化措施,”荷蘭國際集團分析師表示。

“我們預計政策不會改變(即使我們認為存在改變的風險),但我們相信相關的展望報告將顯示央行將2022-2024年的通脹預測上調至2%左右。我們預計日本央行將在今年第二季度末之前放棄YCC,原因包括春季工資談判、積極的產出缺口以及日本央行領導層變動等因素。”德意志銀行分析師表示。

花旗集團對YCC政策看法更為強硬,它表示:

“我們希望YCC被廢除。去年12月,日本央行出人意料地決定改變政策(即擴大10年期日本國債收益率目標區間),但10年期日本國債收益率已經停留在+0.5%這一新區間的上限,導致收益率曲線再次扭曲。”

在日本央行利率和政策會議之後,美元兌日元可能會繼續出現回落。支撐位已經就位,交易員可以利用美元的看跌情況獲利。

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