差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

金價行情急轉直下!後市是強勢回彈還是更大利空信號?

本周金價行情走勢波動,8月30日金價下跌1.05%至1723美元左右,在8月26日金價更是一度從1757美元水平大跌至1736美元水平,而本週三金價跌勢仍在繼續,市場都在關注是否會跌破關鍵的1700美元水平,而白銀、原油等其他大宗商品也同樣面臨頹勢。是什麼原因導致金價在近日急跌?未來將會是更大利空局面或是強勢回彈? 

導致近日金價出現突發行情的主要原因是美國經濟數據意外優於市場預期,美國經濟諮商局週二公佈的數據顯示,8月份消費者信心指數從7月份下修後的95.3,向上增至103.2,為四個月來首次升高。這反映出油價的下跌令美國消費者對經濟前景更加樂觀。

就在同一天,就業市場也公佈了強勁的表現數據,美國7月職位空缺數量為1123.9萬人,遠超市場預期的1037.5萬人,而6月前值為1069.8萬人,這表明美國勞動力市場仍然極度緊張,強勁的勞動力需求也一定程度緩解了市場對於美國經濟衰退的憂慮。 

宏觀經濟層面接連的利好消息直接推升了市場對美聯儲繼續加息的預測,美元預計近日會持續保持在高位,也讓黃金的回彈動力偏弱。這似乎剛好配合了鮑威爾早前在傑克遜霍爾央行年會上鷹派的言論,讓市場對於美聯儲繼續加息的路徑也越來越確信,並且預計加息幅度75個基點的觀點在市場中迅速升溫。 

隨著對美聯儲繼續大幅加息的押注越來越多,黃金也開始了其一路下跌的走勢,在9月利率決議來臨之前,加息的憧憬可能都會持續,黃金可能將迎來持續拋售的行情。 

至於金價下跌趨勢可能會持續多久,主要還需要看美國8月通脹數據的表現以及美聯儲官員接下來的表態,除非本月公佈的數據顯示通脹徹底開始轉向,市場才會開始尋求美聯儲加息幅度可能逐漸減小的信息,黃金才可能重新迎來上昇機會;否則以鮑威爾之前的講話來看,依然會繼續緊縮以抗擊通脹,金價走勢仍可能處於震盪下行。 

令到黃金價格遭遇持續看空的另一個原因是歐洲央行也放鷹,歐洲央行管委米勒日前表示,鑑於通脹率特別高,歐洲央行應將加息75個基點納入其9月政策會議的討論。如果歐洲和美國都選擇大幅加息,作為避險資產的黃金的持有成本就顯得過於高昂,無疑會讓黃金面對來自更多資產的競爭,導致其價格持續受壓。 

總體而言,市場上看空黃金的預測佔據著主導,尤其是市場聚焦本週五即將登場的非農數據,黃金空頭格外關注該數據是否會進一步佐證美國就業市場的強勁需求,因為這可能會對當前已經非常疲軟的黃金價格帶來更大的衝擊。

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