差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

英鎊兌紐元匯率聚焦紐西蘭央行決議

英鎊兌紐元週三有指引,包括紐西蘭央行記者會和英國通膨數據。

GBPNZD – Weekly Chart

英鎊兌紐元-週圖

在再次嘗試2023年夏季高點後,英鎊兌紐元在2.159找到了阻力位。如果經濟數據支持紐元,匯價可能會向2.060的支撐位回落。

紐西蘭央行本週將做出政策決定,經濟學家和投資人不清楚央行是會開始降息,還是等待通膨進一步降溫的跡象。

彭博社的一項調查顯示,1,221名經濟學家預期紐西蘭儲備銀行將把基準現金利率維持在5.5%。九位經濟學家表示,他們將啟動一個寬鬆週期。債券市場數據顯示,交易員目前認為降息的可能性為70%。

“貨幣政策偏緊的風險已成為現實,”奧克蘭ASB Bank的Nick Tuffley表示。

“我們認為現在是紐西蘭央行降息的時候了,但這在很大程度上取決於它的預測發生了多大的變化。”

紐西蘭經濟已經顯示出兩年內第三次陷入衰退的跡象,通貨膨脹的放緩幅度也超過了央行的預期。所有的目光都集中在香港時間上午11點的紐西蘭央行記者會上。紐儲行幾個月前表示,將在一年內開始降息,但現在正考慮加快行動速度。

澳新銀行首席紐西蘭經濟學家Sharon Zollner表示:「基於近幾個月數據的演變,很難證明紐西蘭央行思維上如此激進的轉變是合理的。」分析師預計,將在11月首次下調利率。

“考慮到貨幣環境已經大幅放鬆,等待更多有關經濟運行狀況的證據是合理的,而且成本相對較低。”

緊接著紐西蘭央行決議之後的是英國經濟的重要數據,通膨率預計將從2%上升到2.3%。英國央行在上次會議上降息,如果通膨再次走高,央行可能需要暫停降息。

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