差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

澳元兌美元在澳洲聯儲利率決議前展現出看跌趨勢

在最近的澳大利亞央行利率會議之前,澳元兌美元匯率展現出看跌趨勢。

AUDUSD – Weekly Chart

澳元兌美元 – 週線圖

澳元兌美元在突破下跌趨勢後,自今年 3 月以來一直處於盤整階段。

在過去一年中,澳大利亞儲備銀行激進的加息週期之後,澳大利亞人正在從中找到平靜。在上個月的會議上,澳洲聯儲選擇將基準利率維持在 3.6%。

儘管存在一些通脹擔憂和 50 年來最低的失業率,但由於有跡象表明消費者和家庭正在削減開支,經濟學家和主要銀行都建議澳大利亞央行暫停 5 月份的加息。

然而,一些分析師警告稱,由於通貨膨脹率僅從 12 月的峰值 7.8% 降至 3 月的 7%,因此加息0.25%會拖累房主。西太平洋銀行首席經濟學家比爾·埃文斯 (Bill Evans) 放棄了早先對 5 月份加息的預測。他現在認為澳洲聯儲將停止加息,儘管未來的加息還不確定。

“鑑於當前前景的不確定性以及抑制通脹預期的必要性,理事會幾乎肯定會維持其明確的緊縮傾向,”埃文斯說。

“然而,隨著 2023 年剩餘時間的推移,這種偏見的可信度可能會消退。”

埃文斯表示,最新的通脹數據與澳大利亞央行最終回歸 2% 至 3% 通脹目標的預測路徑一致。他補充說,直到8月利率決議前更多的通脹數據出爐後,才有可能對利率做出更多的預測。

交易者應關注澳元兌美元跌破 0.650 水平,以確認進一步下跌。

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