差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

澳元/美元聚焦即將公佈的澳儲行決議

澳元/美元以澳大利亞儲備銀行的利率決定開始本週的交易。

AUDUSD – Daily Chart1

澳元/美元日圖

澳元兌美元突破了上行通道,目前交易於0.6765。外匯交易員應密切關注可能利空的澳大利亞數據,這些數據可能迫使澳元/美元向0.63-65的水平下跌。

澳儲行在2月份第九次提高利率,達到3.3%的10年高點。週二將再次加息0.25%,將基準利率提高至3.6%。預計利率將在4月和5月兩次上調,使現金利率升至4.1%的11年高點。

然而,西太平洋銀行首席經濟學家比爾·埃文斯預計,澳大利亞儲備銀行將在2024年3月底開始降息。

他說:“雖然我們預計經濟將在2023年下半年停滯不前,但在2023年底之前,在使通脹與目標一致方面不會有足夠的進展,以適應更早的降息。”

澳元/美元走勢取決於澳儲行聲明

西太平洋銀行預計,澳大利亞央行將在2024年3月前降息0.25個百分點,使現金利率回落至3.85%。

美國廣播公司(ABC)表示,澳儲行可能會把經濟推向不必要的衰退。

與全球同行一樣,澳儲行仍然執著於這樣一種觀點,即如果就業數據保持強勁,通脹可能會根深蒂固,這只會堅定其繼續推高利率的決心。最終,他們會成功的。在某個階段提高利率會抑制支出,降低利潤,並導致大規模裁員。這可能是一場我們本不必經歷的衰退。 ”

在周五非農就業數據公佈之前,美國經濟數據將較為清淡。這將意味著澳大利亞央行的利率決定和評論具有更大的權重。經濟學家預計澳儲行將再次加息。不過,新聞發布會的評論可能對澳元兌美元匯率更為關鍵。消費者一直在努力應對抵押貸款和食品方面的通脹壓力。

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