差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

澳元/紐元可能會在新西蘭央行利率決議後走低

在即將舉行的最新新西蘭儲備銀行新聞發布會前,澳元/紐元交投於支撐位附近。

AUDNZD – Weekly Chart

澳元/紐元 – 週線圖

澳元/紐元的價格在新西蘭聯儲之前測試自 2020 年初的上升趨勢支撐線。

由於更多的移民增加和寬鬆的財政政策給通脹造成壓力,預計紐西蘭央行將連續第 12 次加息,。

彭博社調查的 21 位經濟學家中有 18 位表示,儲備銀行預計會將基準利率上調 25 個基點至 5.5%。其餘三位預計加息 50 個基點,但該銀行可能會在稍後發出進一步加息的信號。這可能是推動紐元匯率上漲的動力。

Westpac 首席經濟學家凱利·埃克霍爾德表示:“財政支出和移民激增表明利率峰值將比 2 月份更高。紐西蘭聯儲可能不會立即達到西太平洋銀行 6% 的官方現金利率(OCR)的峰值,但輝表示願意朝著這個目標努力。”

紐西蘭可能不會看到紐西蘭聯儲一直預期的 2023 年經濟衰退,因為創紀錄的移民流入正在推動經濟增長和通脹。預計移民將緩解勞動力市場的短缺,並增加對商品、服務和財產的需求。 Westpac 估計 2023 年將有 100,000 人淨流入,使人口增加約 2%。

紐西蘭聯儲有望加息

紐西蘭聯儲在 4 月份的上次會議上加息 50 個基點,加息幅度大於預期,這可能意味著本週將小幅加息。

“當時大多數人認為加息25個基點是最有可能的結果,但是有些人認為,紐西蘭聯儲在上次會議上加息50個基點的主要原因是,它決定將在預算後必須採取激進措施的可能性降至最低,以免捲入政治進程,”紐西蘭銀行表示。

隨著大選定於 10 月舉行,反對黨已經表示預算將增加通貨膨脹並給家庭帶來更多的抵押貸款負擔。

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