美股等待美联储主席鲍威尔证词

美联储主席鲍威尔将于周二和周三出席国会听证,这可能会刺激美国股市的下一步走势。

SP 500 – 4H Chart

标准普尔500-4小时图

标准普尔500指数正在测试5,578点的阻力位,如果看跌情绪占据上风,可能会出现回调。

鲍威尔将回答美国政界人士就经济和他对利率周期的处理提出的问题。

上周五,美国劳工部的就业报告称,上个月非农就业人数增加了20.6万个,超过了19.1万个的预期,但低于5月份的21.8万个。失业率也出人意料地升至4.1%的两年半高点。

“继续吧。周五的就业报告应该会强化9月份降息的预期。经济状况正在降温,这使得美联储面临不同的权衡,”Renaissance Macro的Neil Dutta表示。

上周,纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯说,尽管通胀最近已放缓至该行2%的目标,但政策制定者仍远未达到目标。“通货膨胀率目前在2.5%左右,因此我们在降低通货膨胀率方面取得了重大进展。但我们仍有办法在持续的基础上达到2%的目标,”威廉姆斯表示。“我们致力于完成这项工作。”

美国利率期货反映出美联储本月货币政策委员会会议降息25个基点的可能性只有6.7%。交易员认为,9月会议降息25个基点的可能性为69%。

基于利率将会下降的预期,美国股市继续走高。最新的通胀数据也将于周四公布,这对美国股市来说可能是重要的一周。

最近的新闻
由于鲍威尔中性基调削弱美元,欧元兑美元反弹

欧元兑美元周二攀升至1.16上方,受助于美联储主席鲍威尔的谨慎政策立场,以及法国政治紧张局势暂时缓和,此前法国政府暂停了备受争议的养老金改革。 鲍威尔在一个经济论坛上发表讲话,重申了“逐次会议”的利率决策方式,并表示劳动力市场的风险现在比通胀担忧更重要。虽然他指出,经济仍比预期强劲,但他承认就业方面的脆弱性日益增加,这增强了人们对进一步放松货币政策的预期。

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