伊朗出口威胁和关税紧张带动油价上涨

美国能源部长克里斯·赖特表示,华盛顿可能会停止伊朗的石油出口,以迫使德黑兰恢复有关其核项目的谈判。随后,布伦特和西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格周五攀升至1美元以上。

brent crude oil chart

布兰特原油期货以每桶64.76美元收盘,上涨1.43美元(2.26%)。与此同时,美国西德克萨斯中质原油也上涨1.43美元(2.38%),以每桶61.50美元收盘。

Lipow Oil Associates总裁Andrew Lipow指出,“严格打击伊朗原油出口将收紧全球供应”,不过他补充说,尽管受到国际制裁,中国可能会继续从伊朗进口石油。

在经历了动荡的一周后,赖特的言论帮助提振了油价,这主要是由美国总统唐纳德·特朗普推出的新关税措施推动的。贸易紧张局势加剧迫使市场参与者重新评估能源领域的地缘政治风险。Again Capital合伙人John Kilduff表示:“美国正在成为一个地缘政治风险,这是一种新的动态。”“这可能会以一种类似于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的方式,重塑全球能源格局。”

作为回应,中国周五宣布将对美国商品征收125%的关税,自周六起生效。本周早些时候,特朗普决定将中国进口商品的关税提高到145%。

尽管特朗普将对其他贸易伙伴实施某些关税的时间推迟了90天,但不断升级的中美贸易战预计将阻碍全球贸易流动,扰乱供应链,减缓经济活动,这些因素可能会对全球石油需求造成压力。

盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen评论道:“尽管一些关税被推迟了——不包括针对中国的关税——但市场已经消化了损失,油价仍面临稳定的压力。”

此外,美国能源情报署(EIA)警告称,持续的关税紧张局势可能会抑制全球经济增长预测,从而降低2025年和2026年的石油需求预测。

根据路透社的一项调查,由于美国对世界上最大的原油进口国征收关税的压力越来越大,预计中国2025年的经济增长将比前一年有所下降。澳新银行分析师援引资深大宗商品策略师Daniel Hynes的观点进一步警告称,如果全球经济增速降至3%以下,石油消费量可能会下降至多1%。

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