战争担忧重返供应链,原油价格反弹

周五,由于交易员看到战争恐惧卷土重来,油价上涨了1%,达到两周以来的高点。

USOIL – Daily Chart

美国原油期货-每日图表

美国原油价格在67美元附近再次找到支撑,目前预计阻力位为71.75美元。在此之上的阻力位可能高达78美元。

受乌克兰战争升级影响,布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质油本周上涨约6%,为去年11月以来的最高水平。

俄罗斯总统普京表示,俄罗斯将继续在战斗中测试其新型“奥列什尼克”高超音速导弹,并有一批导弹可供使用。PVM分析师John Evans表示:“市场担心的是,石油、天然气和炼油行业的任何部分遭到意外破坏,这不仅会造成长期损害,还会加速战争的螺旋式上升。”

美国还对俄罗斯天然气工业银行实施了新的制裁。美国总统拜登正寻求在1月20日卸任前惩罚俄罗斯。克里姆林宫表示,最新的制裁是为了减缓俄罗斯天然气的出口,但指出将找到解决方案。

摩根大通周五在一份报告中表示,预计2025年布伦特原油均价为73美元/桶,但预计今年收盘将稳定在70美元/桶以下,美国西德克萨斯中质原油价格为64美元/桶。

报告称:“过去一年,我们对2025年的看法基本保持不变:我们预计会有130万桶/日的大量盈余,布伦特原油均价为73美元。”

该银行预计,全球石油需求增长将从今年的130万桶/日降至明年的110万桶/日,并表示,在印度于2026年领先之前,预计中国将最后一次引领石油需求增长。

该行补充称:“特朗普的能源议程因放松管制和美国产量增加而给油价带来下行风险,同时也给伊朗、委内瑞拉(可能还有俄罗斯)施加压力,要求其限制石油出口和收入,从而带来上行风险。”

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周二,加元兑美元跌至一周低点,原因是加拿大国内通胀疲软降低了市场对加拿大央行收紧货币政策的预期,而华盛顿方面宣布对加拿大商品加征新关税。美元兑加元在亚洲交易时段升至1.4085加元附近,加元兑美元汇率接近71.00美分。 市场概览

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欧佩克+8月增产令引发供应担忧,油价下跌

周一,欧佩克+七个产油国同意将8月份的日产量目标提高18.8万桶,这是连续第五个月增产,令交易员重新关注供应过剩风险,与此同时,海湾地区的原油出口也在复苏。受此消息影响,油价小幅走低。 格林尼治标准时间01:21,美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货(CL)下跌0.5%,至每桶68.78美元。布伦特原油期货(LCO)下跌0.2%,至每桶71.96美元。

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