香港股市可能出现回调

周三香港股市的大幅抛售可能会导致进一步的下行。

HK50 – Daily Chart

香港50指数日线图

香港50指数第三次触及阻力位,收于25764点。这可能是近期高点,周三的抛售量有所增加,价格达到了3月份的高点。有各种各样的水平,低至22,750点,可能会为健康的回调提供支撑。

汇丰表示,A股和H股之间的价差最近已收窄至5年低点,两个市场都有上涨潜力。分析师补充称,投资者应该对内地和香港的中国股票持更为平衡的看法。

该行指出,在香港H股和A股分别上涨26%和13%之后,通常较高的H股折价幅度已降至五年低点。汇丰认为,由于国内投资者流动性充裕、企业盈利能力不断增强,以及近期刺激消费的政策举措,这两类股票的上涨势头都将持续下去。

在岸市场的购买力是另一个增长因素,本月a股日交易量飙升至2.5万亿元人民币(合3490亿美元)。瑞银集团的James Wang说,这些趋势可能会给A股市场带来上行空间。

他表示:“我们可能会看到A-H溢价在当前水平上再次扩大。”“我们认为H股的风险回报吸引力已经减弱,因为市场是由机构驱动的。”

然而,在香港发行新股的中国企业数量激增,可能会提振流动性。在过去的四个月里,这是一次令人印象深刻的上涨,但第三次未能突破这一阻力位可能是近期回落的迹象。

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