在降息猜测下,黄金处于区间交易

周三,亚洲黄金价格小幅上涨,在过去两周观察到的稳定区间内徘徊。市场上充斥着对美联储何时开始降息的猜测。

在工业金属市场,铜价跌至近一个月低点,回吐了5月触及纪录高位时的大部分涨幅。油价下跌之际,人们对全球经济增长放缓的担忧日益加剧。

随着美元本周跌至两个月来的最低水平,金价有所回落。不过,美元周三显示出温和复苏的迹象。

GOLD – 4-Hour Chart

现货黄金上涨0.4%,至每盎司2,337.35美元,8月交割的黄金期货上涨0.4%,至每盎司2,357.05美元。不过,现货金仍在每盎司2,300 – 2,350美元窄幅震荡,自5月触及纪录高位以来,该区间已维持近两周。

交易员一直不愿大举押注黄金,尽管疲弱的美国经济数据加剧了人们对美联储可能在9月份开始降息的猜测。周二令人失望的职位空缺报告,以及疲弱的PMI和GDP数据的下修,都增加了市场人气。

交易员们对9月份的降息越来越有信心。不过,在周五非农就业数据公布前,市场仍持谨慎态度。非农就业数据料将提供更清晰的就业市场信息。

美联储定于下周召开会议,由于美国持续的通货膨胀,市场普遍预计利率将保持不变。

其他贵金属的价格周三也出现了波动。铂金期货下跌0.2%,至每盎司995.50美元,白银期货上涨0.8%,至每盎司29.863美元。周二,这两种金属均大幅下跌。

在工业金属市场,伦敦金属交易所指标期铜微涨至每吨9,975.50美元,一个月期铜涨至每磅4.5497美元。两份合约均接近一个月来最低水平,基本抹去了5月触及纪录高位时的涨幅。

由于美国和中国公布的经济数据不温不火,引发对全球经济增长放缓的担忧,对铜的需求产生负面影响,铜价下跌。

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周一亚洲开盘,油价飙升逾13%,布伦特原油价格触及每桶82美元。此前,美国和以色列的空袭导致伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊身亡,引发伊朗的报复行动,包括袭击霍尔木兹海峡的油轮。霍尔木兹海峡是全球20%石油消费的重要通道。 布伦特原油期货开盘上涨13%,随后小幅回落至每桶81.50美元,涨幅11%;美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨12%至每桶77.80美元。此次上涨反映了市场对全球最重要的石油运输咽喉要道

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