黄金在近期交易区间找到支撑

金价已反弹至此前的支撑位2,300美元,目前交投于2,355美元,在重返历史高点之前有一些阻力。

XAUUSD – Daily Chart

黄金-日图

周三,在美国公布弱于预期的经济数据后,金价受到提振。投资者加大了对美联储可能在9月前降息的押注。美联储最新会议纪要中的言论也有助于强化这一观点。美联储官员表示,他们仍需要更多信息来决定利率。

美国供应管理协会(ISM)的数据显示,美国服务业的商业活动在达到2023年8月以来的最高水平后也出现萎缩。再加上疲弱的就业数据,导致美国申请失业救济人数上升。私营公司雇佣的工人也在减少。

世界黄金协会表示,“市场可能会再次上涨。”这家国际黄金集团指出,市场仍未饱和,不像以往金价屡创新高的时期。世界黄金协会还表示,如果目前的市场预期占上风,金价可能会保持区间波动。不过,黄金有一条明显的走强之路,可能受到西方资金流入的推动。

基于央行需求的大幅下降和利率在更长时间内保持在高位,今年下半年金价仍有回落的可能。亚洲投资者最近也是大买家,他们需要坚持下去。世界黄金协会指出,今年迄今金价上涨了12%,涨幅超过大多数资产类别。

目前2300美元必须支撑金价,否则可能导致金价进一步回调。Bullion Vault的Adrian Ash表示,银价涨幅更为可观,突破每盎司30美元,因白银”相对于持有现金或债券的机会成本回落”。

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