英国央行维持利率不变后,英镑兑美元汇率上涨

总结

英国央行将利率稳定在5%后,英镑兑美元上涨,政策制定者对通胀发出警告,而市场预计未来几个月可能会降息。

在英国央行将利率稳定在5%之后,英镑兑美元汇率周四上涨。

GBPUSD – Daily Chart

英镑兑美元-日线图

英国央行将关键利率维持在5%不变,原因是央行货币政策委员会内部对通胀的持续担忧。占英国经济80%左右的重要服务业价格上涨。周三公布的数据显示,8月份英国总体通胀率保持在2.2%的年化水平,仍高于央行的目标。

英国央行最近一次会议的纪要显示,9名委员中有8人投票支持维持利率不变,只有1人支持降息25个基点。

行长贝利表示,“经济的发展与我们的预期大体一致。如果这种情况持续下去,我们应该能够随着时间的推移逐步降低利率。“但保持低通胀至关重要,因此我们需要小心,不要削减得太快或太多。”

市场普遍预计,英国央行将在11月的下次会议上再次降低借贷成本。10月30日,英国新政府将公布预算。工党政府表示,他们需要填补220亿英镑(290亿美元)的公共财政漏洞,并表示可能需要提高税收和减少支出。这可能会给英国经济的近期前景带来压力,并给通胀带来下行压力。

Aberdeen的副首席经济学家Luke Bartholomew表示,英国央行“将需要在下一次预测中纳入任何财政变化,这可能为在适当时候更迅速地降息提供基础。”

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