聚焦英镑兑纽元随数据公布而出现波动

周三,英镑兑纽元聚焦新西兰央行决议和英国通胀数据。

GBPNZD – Daily Chart

英镑兑纽元-日图

英镑兑纽元在2.07找到支撑位,确认了上行趋势支撑线。在2.095水平有进一步走强的阻力。

香港时间上午11点,新西兰央行举行新闻发布会,为这对货币对提供最初的波动。香港时间下午2点,英国公布通胀数据。

英国核心通胀率预计将从4.2%放缓至3.6%,年通胀率预计将从3.2%大幅下降至2.1%。在新西兰储备银行公布最新货币政策之前,纽元小幅走低。然而,鹰派言论可能会提振纽元。

新西兰财政部一直对经济前景持悲观态度,称由于零售支出下降和各个行业的商业活动放缓,“看不到拐点”。信贷数据疲软和房地产市场放缓也损害了新西兰经济。

根据市场研究机构Kantar的数据,英国5月份的食品杂货通胀连续第15个月下降,达到了自2021年10月以来的最低水平。在截至5月12日的四周内,年度食品杂货价格通胀率为2.4%,低于上月的3.2%。

上个月公布的英国官方数据显示,受食品通胀放缓至4%的推动,3月份消费者价格通胀率降至3.2%。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示,英国今年仍有可能进行三次降息。周三公布的数据可能会考验这一点。更高的通胀数据可能会推动英镑进一步升值。

总部位于华盛顿的国际货币基金组织表示,英国央行降息存在“延迟”的风险,这表明利率水平需要降低0.75%。

尽管通胀预计将在周三非常接近英国央行2%的目标,但预计会出现波动,在2025年“持久”达到2%之前,将在一年内上升。英国央行总裁贝利也表示,他预计4月通胀将”大幅下降”。

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