英镑兑澳元聚焦即将公布的GDP和澳洲联储会议纪要

本周,随着英国经济增长数据和澳大利亚央行会议纪要的公布,英镑兑澳元汇率可能出现一些波动。

GBPAUD – Daily Chart

英镑兑澳元—日图

英镑兑澳元一直在寻求在2.00上方的高点处获得支撑位。这将是未来几天的一个重要考验。

英国经济GDP增长数据将于香港时间周一下午3点公布。分析师预计同比回报率为1%,月增长率为0.1%。然而,最近的英国央行会议表示,未来两个季度的增长率将为0%,英镑兑澳元可能很难维持在2.00以上的涨幅。

澳大利亚指引将于周二公布,澳大利亚储备银行会议纪要将于香港时间上午8:30发布。澳大利亚央行如果释放积极的立场,英镑兑澳元可能录得中期顶部。

Home Loans创始人Mark Bouris呼吁澳大利亚央行在2月份的下次会议上降息,并警告澳大利亚同胞,经济衰退正在逼近。他认为,持续的高利率可能会加剧经济状况,导致全面衰退。他说,需要提高利率来对抗通胀,但利率已经达到了目的。

“但现在,高利率的负面影响超过了好处,”他说。

“高利率已使经济放缓到我们正处于全面衰退边缘的地步。”

澳大利亚央行在2024年的最后一次董事会会议上将现金利率维持在4.35%不变,同时强调3.5%的潜在通胀率仍然离其2%至3%的目标太远。

随着经济放缓,英国可能会再次降息,英镑兑澳元可能会很难延续最近的走势。

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