欧洲选举消息拖累导致欧元兑美元大跌

欧洲民粹主义政党的支持率激增,导致欧元兑美元大跌。

EURUSD – Daily Chart

欧元兑美元-日图

欧元兑美元受到选举结果的沉重打击,上周我们已经注意到阻力。强劲的非农就业数据导致抛售,选举消息推动欧元测试1.0735,疲软可能会持续到选举确定为止。

欧洲政治领域最大的冲击是法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的重大失败。马克龙呼吁提前举行选举,这是一场重大的政治豪赌,可能会让他失去在欧洲高层的席位。进一步的结果显示,比利时首相辞职,而民粹主义政党在荷兰和德国崛起。

在之前的选举中,这些政党支持脱离欧盟或单一货币。然而,他们的立场现在似乎从内部进一步控制了它。

据公共广播公司RAI报道,乔治娅·梅洛尼的极右翼政党也赢得了大多数意大利选票。

由于对美国降息的预期增强,欧元在最近几个交易日一直在上涨。但在最新的选举结果出炉后,交易员的优柔寡断现在又回到了他们的脑海中,导致未来几周和几个月的混乱。

总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨周一表示,欧洲选举结果对德国政府联合政党不利。

舒尔茨领导的社会民主党位居第三,仅次于基督教民主联盟和极右翼的德国新选择党。

肖尔茨表示:“没有人会被建议简单地恢复一切正常。”他补充称,极右翼政党的胜利可能会破坏该地区的稳定。

“我们不得不担心这一点。你永远不可能习惯它,而把它们再次推回去总是一项任务,”他说。

本周,我们将获得欧元兑美元的重要数据。香港时间周三晚间将公布通胀数据,美联储将在周四凌晨作出利率决定并举行新闻发布会。本周,随着大型交易商重新调整此前的预期,该货币对可能出现进一步波动。

分析师预计通胀率将保持在3.4%的水平,美联储在新闻发布会上的评论将比利率决定更有影响力。

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