欧元兑英镑聚焦PMI数据的公布

欧元兑英镑汇率受到周四德国和英国经济PMI数据的影响。

EURGBP - Daily Chart
欧元兑英镑-日走势图

欧元兑英镑已从4月份的0.87跌至0.84,并有进一步下跌的风险。下方的支撑位是0.8323。

周四的数据将于香港时间下午3:30公布,届时将公布德国PMI数据。预计制造业指数将从48.4升至48.9,服务业指数将上升0.5。

德国同样的数据也将于下午4点发布,预计制造业将有所增长。英国将于下午4:30发布PMI数据,预计其PMI数据将出现更大幅度的跃升。这可能显示出英国经济的潜在实力,并加剧欧元近期的跌势。

英国最近一直在与欧元区就英国退欧重置协议进行谈判。据报道,英国将获得欧盟1500亿英镑的国防采购计划,而边境的食品和农业设备检查将大幅减少。

批评人士称这是一项“投降协议”,但Frontier Economics的财务分析机构在今年早些时候评估了更紧密的联系对英国国内经济的好处,称这项协议每年可能为英国带来高达250亿英镑的价值。

路透调查显示,英国经济今年增长速度料略快,预计第一季意外强劲增长将延续。随着与欧盟的协议以及与美国的基本贸易协议,英国的情绪有所改善。美国对英国商品仍征收10%的关税,但对汽车和钢铁的关税有所降低。

“英国政府今年将大幅增加支出。有大量资金流入,这也将起到一点顺风的作用。实际工资增长也仍然相当强劲,因此经济仍有一些合理的基础,”荷兰国际集团经济学家James Smith表示。

英国经济的近期人气似乎比欧洲同行更为乐观,这可能会提振英镑,PMI数据有可能带动汇价进一步上涨。

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