鸽派的鲍威尔让股市投资者松了一口气

周五,市场为立场温和的鲍威尔欢呼,但前景仍不明朗。

SPX 500 – Daily Chart

标准普尔500指数-日线图

标准普尔500指数本周收于高点,未来一周可能会再创新高。

在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔开启降息大门后,标准普尔500指数周五飙升。这种反应似乎有点过头,因为他只是暗示将在9月降息,但美元今年以来的下跌已经反映出大幅降息的预期。近几个月来,这位央行行长还受到美国总统特朗普要求降低美国利率的巨大压力。

鲍威尔表示,随着就业市场降温,特朗普的关税加剧了通货膨胀,“转移”的经济风险加大了美联储降息的可能性。

鲍威尔周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储经济峰会上表示:“由于政策处于限制性区域,基线前景和风险平衡的变化可能需要调整我们的政策立场。”

这番言论被视为鸽派立场的转变,暗示他可能支持在9月的下次会议上降息25个基点。

鲍威尔承认,美国贸易战对消费者价格的影响现在“清晰可见”,但他表示,这种影响将持续下去,而且会被证明是一次性的冲击,可以忽略不计。

伯南克表示:“鉴于劳动力市场并非特别紧张,且面临越来越大的下行风险,这种结果似乎不太可能出现。”

他补充称,“通胀风险倾向于上行,就业风险倾向于下行,这是一个具有挑战性的局面”。

股市将此视为开绿灯,美股500强指数飙升至近期高点附近。未来一周将被用来决定在9月利率会议之前市场能有多强劲。

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