中国股市有望测试关键阻力位

中国股市在11月份制造业活动放缓至三年低点后,从连续两天的抛售中恢复过来。

CHINA 50 - Daily Chart

中国50日线图

中国50指数在下行趋势线上从10月份的高点有阻力。失败的目标可能是14760,但突破下行趋势线将返回到看涨的设置。

本周公布的一项民间调查显示,中国制造业再度陷入收缩,突显出国内需求持续疲软。标普全球编制的RatingDog中国一般制造业PMI指数上月降至49.9。这令分析师感到意外,此前路透调查的预期为50.5,与9月和10月的情况相反,当时民间PMI显示扩张。在民间PMI数据发布之前,中国统计局周日发布的官方数据显示,制造业活动连续第八个月放缓。

尽管出口订单以8个月来最快的速度增长,但整体行业显示出紧张迹象。11月国内新订单持平,导致生产增长停滞。经济学家现在警告说,中国第四季度的经济增速可能会从第三季度的4.8%下滑至4.5%以下。与美国的贸易紧张局势有所缓解,但全球经济增长仍然紧张。

海外对中国股票的需求今年有所回升,由于担心西方国家的估值泡沫,这种需求应该会持续下去。

摩根士丹利首席中国股票策略师Laura Wang表示:“我们相信,外国投资者回归中国,我们正处于一个逐步重新配置的过程的开始。”

“我认为,今年迄今为止,他们所看到的已经足够令人鼓舞,足以让他们逐渐改变主意。”

创纪录的1.38万亿港元(1770亿美元)也从中国内地投资到香港,香港的资本市场已经恢复活力。

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