受ETF资金外流和华尔街影响,中国股市下跌

一些投资者在最近的上涨中获利回吐后,中国股市下跌。

CH 50 – Daily Chart

中国日线图

中国50指数可能希望测试5月初突破的下行阻力线12200点。在那里找到支撑可能会让金价再次走高。

根据彭博汇编的数据,上海和深圳的股票ETF在5月份总共遭遇了42亿美元的撤资。这超过了投资者在前两个月的投资总额。

瑞银投资银行中国策略主管James Wang表示:“过去几周流入股市的大部分资金可能是押注房地产政策预期的‘快钱’。”他表示,由于刺激力度弱于预期,“可能有抛售的冲动”。

尽管最近出现了一些抛售,但中国股市的市场广度有所改善。

自今年1月以来,摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数上涨近30%,推动约半数成分股突破200日移动均线。这是一个好兆头,在接下来的几个月里,这一比例通常会扩大到80%。

相比之下,美国股市的反弹是围绕着所谓的“壮丽七巨头”展开的,英伟达和微软等股票构成了股指反弹的大部分。

在摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数从1月份低点反弹的过程中,消费科技和金融类股表现最好,房地产和材料类股涨幅超过40%。在进一步的刺激措施出台后,市场目前预计设备制造商、出口商和地产股等更广泛的行业将出现复苏。

法国巴黎银行亚洲资产管理公司的Chi Lo表示:“鉴于宏观信贷风险状况的改善以及经济复苏,随着复苏的扩大,中小型股将受益。”

华尔街的疲软也在周五拖累了亚洲股市。然而,美国股指在上周五收盘前大幅反弹,亚洲股市可能强势开盘。

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地缘政治不确定性加剧,黄金突破4900美元创历史新高

周四,黄金价格飙升至每盎司4900美元以上的新高,延续了过去一年来令人瞩目的涨势,金价累计上涨超过70%。据主要市场数据来源显示,现货价格在最新一轮上涨中一度达到每盎司4920美元至4950美元的区间。 此次金价飙升主要归因于多种因素的共同作用,包括地缘政治紧张局势升级、市场对美联储降息的预期不断增强以及美元走软。随着实际收益率的下降,持有黄金的机会成本降低,而美元走软则使黄金对非美国投资者更具吸引力。

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