零售销售数据公布前澳元走弱

在澳大利亚公布零售销售数据之前,澳元兑美元汇率在过去两天有所走低。

AUDUSD – Daily Chart

澳元兑美元-日图

澳元兑美元在0.6285存在阻力,之后下跌至0.62145。这使得2022年的支撑位0.6176将在未来几天发挥作用。

澳大利亚零售销售数据将于周四上午8点30分公布,预计环比将从0.6%上升至1%。贸易帐数据也将公布,分析师预计将从59.35亿美元降至57.5亿美元。

澳大利亚经济正盯着降息以帮助苦苦挣扎的消费者,而美国经济仍保持僵化,这有助于支撑美元。美联储最新的会议纪要支持了一段时间的利率谨慎,这再次令市场感到意外。

会议纪要指出,美国的通胀风险依然存在:

“许多与会者表示,各种因素突显出,在未来几个季度,有必要谨慎对待货币政策决策。”

政策制定者对特朗普领导下的政策变化增加了“占位假设”,导致经济增长预测放缓,通胀也保持坚挺。

最新分析显示,“几乎所有与会者”都认为,通胀前景的上行风险有所增加。澳大利亚的零售销售数据将在当前的趋势中发挥作用,因为疲软的数据可能导致汇价测试2022年的低点,这一趋势目前正随着美元走强而变化。

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