在澳大利亚央行利率决议之前,澳元兑美元面临下行压力

周一,由于Judo Bank采购经理人指数(PMI)数据令人失望,澳元兑美元回落。由于最近公布的第二季度通胀数据削弱了人们对澳大利亚储备银行在即将召开的政策会议上再次加息的预期,澳元面临额外压力。

重点:

  • 7月,Judo Bank澳大利亚综合PMI降至49.9,低于关键的50关口
  • 市场目前预计澳洲央行最早可能在11月降息
  • 中国7月份财新服务业PMI升至52.1,超出预期

澳大利亚央行利率预期的转变严重影响了澳元,市场现在关注着11月可能的降息——比之前预测的明年4月要早得多。这一前景给澳元兑美元货币对带来了下行压力。

尽管澳元疲软,但由于最近美元疲软,下行空间可能有限。上周五公布的美国劳动力市场数据弱于预期,引发了人们对美联储可能考虑在9月份降息的猜测。

市场推动因素:

  • 美国7月非农就业人数增加11.4万人,低于预期的17.5万人
  • 美国平均时薪环比增长放缓至0.2%
  • 7月份,美国供应管理学会制造业PMI降至46.8的8个月低点

由于两国之间密切的贸易关系,中国的经济数据继续影响着澳大利亚市场。中国财新服务业PMI有所改善,从6月份的51.2升至7月份的52.1,超出市场预期。

当交易者消化这些混杂的信号时,所有的目光都集中在澳大利亚央行周二的政策决定和即将到来的经济指标上,这些指标可能为澳元兑美元汇率提供进一步的方向。

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