澳元兑美元聚焦澳大利亚经济增长数据

周三,澳元兑美元汇率聚焦澳大利亚GDP增长数据。

AUDUSD – Daily Chart

澳元美元-日图

澳元兑美元汇率在0.6693找到阻力位,收于0.6650。修正可能会在这个水平形成,以0.6600作为第一个目标。

周三香港时间上午9:30,澳大利亚公布最新GDP增长数据。分析人士预计,经济的年增长率将从1.9%降至1.2%。

分析人士目前担心澳大利亚经济会陷入衰退。根据澳大利亚统计局,今年第三季度,零售商的总营业利润下降了2.5%。建筑、运输和零售贸易行业的盈利也在逆转。大宗商品价格走弱也影响了矿业利润,该季度矿业利润下降6.1%。住宿、餐饮服务和酒店业的利润仅增长了1%。

这些数据将出现在3月当季的GDP数据中,并于周三公布,可以证明经济表现低于分析师的预期。

周二公布数据后,毕马威首席经济学家Brendan Rynne表示,3月当季GDP数据将显示,经济“离衰退只有一步之遥”。

他说:“与2023年第四季度的数据相结合,表明过去6个月国内经济几乎没有增长。”

“不过,由于通胀仍很棘手,而且要达到目标区间的’最后一公里’要艰难得多,毕马威预计澳洲央行至少还会再观望一个季度,”他补充道。较弱的GDP数据可能导致澳元兑美元从当前阻力位回调。

美国供应管理学会服务业数据将于香港时间晚上10点发布,在本周早些时候公布的ISM制造业数据放缓后,这可能是必要的。

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