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Bitcoin set for four-day decline as US jobs data curbs Fed rate cuts

Why Did Bitcoin Drop After the US Jobs Report?

Bitcoin fell 2.9% on Thursday to $65,663 (as of 15:18 ET). This extended a four-day losing streak amid a risk-off mood across assets. A stronger-than-expected US January nonfarm payrolls report showed robust job growth, steady low unemployment, and firm wage gains. It dashed hopes for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Traders now price in easing only by June, pressuring risk assets like crypto. Bitcoin stabilized overnight but could not sustain gains. It stayed range-bound below $70,000 after halting a slide toward $60,000 earlier this month.

BTC Chart

Crypto Market Data: ETFs, Derivatives, and Volatility

  • ETFs: Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $276.3M net outflows on Feb 11, led by Fidelity’s FBTC ($92.6M redemptions). WisdomTree’s BTCW added $6.78M. Total ETF assets: $85.77B (6.35% of BTC market cap). Cumulative inflows: $54.72B.
  • Derivatives: Open interest dropped to $23B (well below Jan/Oct peaks). Low open interest-to-volume ratio shows flushed leverage. Funding rates slightly positive. Inverted implied volatility signals near-term uncertainty.
  • Analyst View: “Total crypto market cap remains range-bound with subdued volatility and limited conviction,” says Nexo Dispatch’s Dessislava Ianeva.

Higher-for-longer rates typically hit crypto hard. Thursday’s higher-than-expected jobless claims added caution. Friday’s CPI report is now key for clues on Fed policy.

Standard Chartered Bitcoin Price Prediction: $50K Low Ahead?

Standard Chartered slashed near-term forecasts, citing “challenging” price action. Analyst Geoff Kendrick expects:

  • Bitcoin to $50K or below.
  • Ethereum to ~$1,400.

Reasons: ETF holdings down 25% from Oct 2025 peaks (nearly 100K fewer BTC coins). An average buy price of ~$90K puts investors in deep unrealised losses, fueling sells over dips and dip-buying. Long-term: Recovery expected for the rest of 2026 post-lows.

Bitcoin’s struggle reflects cautious appetite amid volatility. Watch CPI for breakout signals.

BlockFills Halts Withdrawals: What It Means for Crypto Liquidity

Crypto liquidity provider BlockFills paused client withdrawals last week amid the slump, per FT and other reports.

  • Details: Protects clients and the firm under stress. Spot and derivatives trading continue to be limited.
  • Scale: Serves 2,000+ institutions. $60B+ volume in 2025.
    This echoes past downturn moves by crypto firms, signalling liquidity strains.

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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