Nvidia (NYSE:NVDA) has been the driver of the US stock market rally and there are risks that it could be heading for a correction.
NVDA – Weekly Chart
The price of the NVDA has dipped to $131.46 and is at risk of an unwind towards the $100 level if bad news emerges.
“The market’s most important stock is faltering,” CNBC headlines said on Monday. Shares are now down -3% in December, but -10% from the all-time high.
A move to $100 would be a further -25% and would take the stock to a 38% Fibonacci correction from the lows around January 2023 when the artificial intelligence hype rally began.
If that correction happened, it would be a shock to the market and also drag many other technology firms lower.
Bernstein analysts are among analysts still bullish on the company.
“In front of the Blackwell product cycle, you have to be in Nvidia,” he wrote. “Demand looks clearly off the charts; 2025 seems likely to be an exceedingly good year”.
Beth Kindig, CEO of I/O Fund, said a successor to Blackwell may also be in the works. A product named Rubin “is rumored to be six months ahead of schedule, with a roll out as early as the first half of 2026,” she posted.
Chip demand may not be a problem for Nvidia and other companies, but valuations are looking stretched in tech stocks and a market shock may come from a broader market issue.
Political turmoil appears to be happening all over the world with changes in Syria, South Korea, France, and now Germany. The largest economy in Europe has seen its Chancellor lose a vote of confidence. That brings debt risk to the eurozone and it is clearly a time to be cautious with global trends.
Nvidia is priced at around 29x sales, compared to 3x for the sector average so there is room to move lower and still remain in a bullish trend.
