The price of gold is looking to hold onto recent gains above the $4,150 price area.
XAUUSD – Daily Chart
XAUUSD has moved above the $4,150 level, opening the potential for another move to $4,200, which was an obstacle in November.
Gold has been in big demand this year, and global physically backed gold ETFs were able to register inflows for a fifth consecutive month, with $8.2bn in October. That was also comfortably above the y-t-d average of US$7.1bn. ETFs are now two months away from recording what should be the strongest year on record.
Global gold ETFs’ total assets under management (AUM) rose by 6% over the previous month to $503bn by the end of October, with holdings up 1% to 3,893t.
Gold has gotten a boost in recent sessions as traders continue to bet on a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank had been priced at a 30% chance of a rate hike in its next meeting, but that has now jumped above 70%.
Meanwhile, Bank of America analysts expect gold prices to rise again in 2026. Central banks have increased their gold holdings from 13% of reserves in 2022 to around 22% by Q2 2025.
Investors are hopeful of another Fed rate cut after New York Fed President John Williams said the softer labour market was a reason to show caution. Williams said on Friday that U.S. interest rates still had room to fall without risking the Fed’s inflation goal.
But Standard Chartered are not certain of a cut, writing:
“Gold struggles to gain traction on Fed cut likely being pushed, China demand concerns, easing trade risks. On downside support, central banks remain net buyers and concerns persist on Supreme Court decision (on Trump’s tariffs)”.
The gold price has a chance to nudge higher to the $4,200 level, and we will see if that provides another headwind, or if a move back to the all-time highs is possible.
