差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由於槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 62.96% 的零售投資者帳戶在跟這個供應商交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。
62.96% 的零售投資者帳戶在跟這個供應商交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。
差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由於槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 62.96%的零售投資者帳戶在跟這個供應商交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險
75.12% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs / Spread betting with this provider.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.12% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs / Spread betting with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs / Spread betting work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
ATFX

英國金融行為監管局(FCA)牌照; 760555

rch
會員中心
馬上註冊
rch

歐洲能源供應商倒閉潮來襲,40家企業倒閉!哪些行業將受到波及?

回顧過去一年,全球能源價格上漲已經成為標誌性的國際事件,受到電力和天然氣價格飆升,此前被業內人士預測的歐洲能源供應商倒閉潮目前已經來臨。據彭博社報導,截至目前為止,已有超過40家能源供應商倒閉。

雖然早有預警,但是此次倒閉潮波及範圍廣泛,造成行業巨震,引發了全球的關注。受到能源危機影響,新加坡也已經有5家規模較大的零售商破產,影響到約14萬個家庭和1.1萬家企業。與此同時,大部分英國仍在運作的能源供應商仍處於虧損狀態。我們不禁思考這場能源行業巨震將如何演變,未來會不會造成更大範圍的波及?

 

能源危機從何而起?

歐洲目前主要消費的能源為原油、天然氣和煤炭,然而這三種能源均高度依賴進口。自今年第二季度以來,歐洲天然氣價格飆升,加之通脹水平持續高位,但是對能源的需求整體變化不大,誘發了之後的能源危機。

這其中主要的問題出在了天然氣供給端上,據統計,2021年, 和天然氣投資總額相比疫情發生前下降了約26%。歐洲天然氣產量近兩年來呈現逐漸下行趨勢,因此大量依賴能源進口,貢獻歐洲35%需求的俄羅斯天然氣就成為了穩定金融市場的焦點。由於地緣政治緊張和氣候嚴寒的影響,歐洲和俄羅斯之間的能源供應計劃顯得非常脆弱。今年以來俄羅斯向歐洲的輸氣量維持在低位,由於冬天的來臨俄羅斯等能源供應國本國的需求量增加,出口量隨之下降,加上美國和俄羅斯之間外交關係風雲變幻,令俄羅斯未來亦無法承諾向歐洲市場穩定供應天然氣。

此外,亞洲地區對天然氣的需求在不斷上升,俄羅斯未來很可能看到新興市場的機遇增加對亞洲的天然氣供應,進一步削弱歐洲的供應數量。那麼,這場歐洲能源行業的巨震可能只是一個開始。

機構數據顯示,11月份歐洲天然氣供應合同躍升23%,達到了創紀錄水平,至每兆瓦時117.50歐元,而6個月前僅為18歐元,較2020年5月創紀錄低點更是上漲了超1000%。

 

哪些行業受到波及?

寒冷天氣侵襲歐洲大陸,這場能源危機帶來的電力短缺已經影響到了歐洲經濟的複蘇。不斷上升的天然氣和電力價格令工業製造商面臨財務壓力。

包括鋼鐵、化肥、水泥、造紙等多個行業在內的11個歐洲行業協會日前已做出警告稱,此次能源危機造成了能源密集型企業正在支付“難以承受”的成本,並且有可能會引發行業倒閉潮,甚至會造成經濟衰退。哥倫比亞大學全球能源政策中心研究學者Anne-Sophie Corbeau日前表示,現在問題不僅僅是能源成本,吃飯和取暖都是非常重要的事情,目前不僅很多人可能在供暖方面有問題,未來可能還會出現食物價格上漲的風險。

愈演愈烈的能源危機是造成今年10月以來股票市場大幅波動的主因,市場對能源短缺的恐慌隨著嚴冬的到來近一步加劇,但是受到經濟周期的影響相關股份表現呈現大起大落。從能源股的表現可以看出,今年10月以前,能源股積累了大量的漲幅,近期出現回調,週一歐洲天然氣價格錄得連續4個交易日的下跌,暫時緩解了市場對供應的過度,但是這並不代表警報已經解除。

 

歐洲能源危機未來如何發展?

隨著全球經濟不斷復甦,一些國家逐漸恢復部分旅行、結束疫情時期的邊境封鎖,各國對原油的需求量不斷上升,從而導致汽油價格的上行。市場分析人士表示,石油和天然氣價格在2022年或將面臨進一步的上行壓力。這對於歐洲的能源危機不是一個利好的局面。

有分析機構預警表示,歐洲天然氣價格2021年年內最高漲幅729%,電價暴漲500%,如果漲價勢頭繼續,最壞的情況可能引發“市場危機”。

不過,也有分析人士指出,其實現在這場能源危機預示著世界在建立新的能源體系的過程中,仍然對舊的傳統能源體系充滿依賴。例如,一些清潔能源仍存在這基礎設施不健全的情況還不能在能源行業大規模的應用。從某種程度上說,這場危機也是促進新能源體係不斷完善的機遇。


了解更多市場分析

Last Updated: 01/01/2022

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.


 

Recent news

Recent news
First Anniversary for Biden Administration, Which unresolved problem remains?

On January 20, 2021, US President Biden was sworn in at the White House. So what has chang...

Recent news
US Dollar Retreats from Highs to Test 95.7 Level

After the U.S. released its inflation and retail sales data last week, the US dollar fell ...

Recent news
The Sell-Off in Technology Stocks May Be Coming To an End | So what Is the Future for US Stocks?

The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's stance on curbing...

Recent news
The 'January Effect' of US Stocks and the Earnings Season Are Both Coming | So which Stocks Are Worthy of Investors’ Attention?

Following last year's "Santa Claus rally", the markets ushered in the "January Effect" to ...

Recent news
Implications From the US NFP Data

The US non-farm payrolls report for December looked mixed, but it contained multiple surpr...