差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由于杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。 62.96%的零售投资者帐户在跟这个供应商交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。
62.96%的零售投资者帐户在跟这个供应商交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。
差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由于杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。 62.96%的零售投资者帐户在跟这个供应商交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。
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欧洲能源供应商倒闭潮来袭,40家企业倒闭!哪些行业将受到波及?

回顾过去一年,全球能源价格上涨已经成为标志性的国际事件,受到电力和天然气价格飙升,此前被业内人士预测的欧洲能源供应商倒闭潮目前已经来临。据彭博社报道,截至目前为止,已有超过40家能源供应商倒闭。

虽然早有预警,但是此次倒闭潮波及范围广泛,造成行业巨震,引发了全球的关注。受到能源危机影响,新加坡也已经有5家规模较大的零售商破产,影响到约14万个家庭和1.1万家企业。与此同时,大部分英国仍在运作的能源供应商仍处于亏损状态。我们不禁思考这场能源行业巨震将如何演变,未来会不会造成更大范围的波及?

 

能源危机从何而起?

欧洲目前主要消费的能源为原油、天然气和煤炭,然而这三种能源均高度依赖进口。自今年第二季度以来,欧洲天然气价格飙升,加之通胀水平持续高位,但是对能源的需求整体变化不大,诱发了之后的能源危机。

这其中主要的问题出在了天然气供给端上,据统计,2021年, 和天然气投资总额相比疫情发生前下降了约26%。欧洲天然气产量近两年来呈现逐渐下行趋势,因此大量依赖能源进口,贡献欧洲35%需求的俄罗斯天然气就成为了稳定金融市场的焦点。由于地缘政治紧张和气候严寒的影响,欧洲和俄罗斯之间的能源供应计划显得非常脆弱。今年以来俄罗斯向欧洲的输气量维持在低位,由于冬天的来临俄罗斯等能源供应国本国的需求量增加,出口量随之下降,加上美国和俄罗斯之间外交关系风云变幻,令俄罗斯未来亦无法承诺向欧洲市场稳定供应天然气。

此外,亚洲地区对天然气的需求在不断上升,俄罗斯未来很可能看到新兴市场的机遇增加对亚洲的天然气供应,进一步削弱欧洲的供应数量。那么,这场欧洲能源行业的巨震可能只是一个开始。

机构数据显示,11月份欧洲天然气供应合同跃升23%,达到了创纪录水平,至每兆瓦时117.50欧元,而6个月前仅为18欧元,较2020年5月创纪录低点更是上涨了超1000%

 

哪些行业受到波及?

寒冷天气侵袭欧洲大陆,这场能源危机带来的电力短缺已经影响到了欧洲经济的复苏。不断上升的天然气和电力价格令工业制造商面临财务压力。

包括钢铁、化肥、水泥、造纸等多个行业在内的11个欧洲行业协会日前已做出警告称,此次能源危机造成了能源密集型企业正在支付“难以承受”的成本,并且有可能会引发行业倒闭潮,甚至会造成经济衰退。哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心研究学者Anne-Sophie Corbeau日前表示,现在问题不仅仅是能源成本,吃饭和取暖都是非常重要的事情,目前不仅很多人可能在供暖方面有问题,未来可能还会出现食物价格上涨的风险。

愈演愈烈的能源危机是造成今年10月以来股票市场大幅波动的主因,市场对能源短缺的恐慌随着严冬的到来近一步加剧,但是受到经济周期的影响相关股份表现呈现大起大落。从能源股的表现可以看出,今年10月以前,能源股积累了大量的涨幅,近期出现回调,周一欧洲天然气价格录得连续4个交易日的下跌,暂时缓解了市场对供应的过度,但是这并不代表警报已经解除。

 

欧洲能源危机未来如何发展?

随着全球经济不断复苏,一些国家逐渐恢复部分旅行、结束疫情时期的边境封锁,各国对原油的需求量不断上升,从而导致汽油价格的上行。市场分析人士表示,石油和天然气价格在2022年或将面临进一步的上行压力。这对于欧洲的能源危机不是一个利好的局面。

有分析机构预警表示,欧洲天然气价格2021年年内最高涨幅729%,电价暴涨500%,如果涨价势头继续,最坏的情况可能引发“市场危机”。

不过,也有分析人士指出,其实现在这场能源危机预示着世界在建立新的能源体系的过程中,仍然对旧的传统能源体系充满依赖。例如,一些清洁能源仍存在这基础设施不健全的情况还不能在能源行业大规模的应用。从某种程度上说,这场危机也是促进新能源体系不断完善的机遇。


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Last Updated: 01/01/2022

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.


 

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