差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

突破阻力位後,油價何去何從

在最近突破阻力後,油價目前在每桶81美元上方,而且還有上漲的空間。

USOIL – Daily Chart

USOIL -每日圖表

從2023年11月開始就有強大的阻力,現在價格已經小幅上漲,有可能推動至80-90美元中部價位。

油價週四上漲,此前總部位於美國的國際能源總署(IEA)預測,2024年的供需情勢將趨緊,預計到年底將出現更高的成長。

分析師蒂姆·埃文斯對路透社表示:“上週烏克蘭無人機襲擊摧毀了三家俄羅斯煉油廠,美國庫存下降,市場可能已經準備好了一些後續購買,但國際能源署週四發布的 月度石油市場報告進一步提振了市場。”

國際能源機構預計,自去年11月以來,石油需求將第四次上升。 此前,反政府武裝的襲擊擾亂了紅海航運通道。 然而,該組織警告稱,「全球經濟放緩對石油使用構成了額外的不利因素」。

2024年的需求預測為130萬桶/日,比上個月增加11萬桶/日,但仍低於去年的230萬桶/日的成長。

另一個支持油價上漲的因素是烏克蘭的衝突和無人機對俄羅斯煉油廠的攻擊。 週三,該國四家大型煉油廠成為攻擊目標,導致該國能源部預測,由於煉油廠停產,原油出口將增加。 由於敵方襲擊導致煉油廠停工,俄羅斯2月海運出口較上月下降1.5%。 分析師預測,俄羅斯汽油產品的價格將下降至多10%。

美國能源資訊署週三表示,美國的石油庫存數據也起到了支撐作用,由於加工增加,汽油庫存在夏季駕駛季節之前減少,庫存意外下降。

EIA表示,截至3月8日當週,原油庫存連續六週增加,減少150萬桶至4.47億桶。 與此形成對比的是,路透社調查的分析師預期為增加130萬桶。

原油價格已經回升到每桶80美元以上。 中東和烏克蘭的潛在緊張局勢,以及消費經濟體面臨的充滿挑戰的環境,應該會為油價進一步上漲提供支撐。

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