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日本2月通脹自40年高位回落 | 美元/日元預測

最新數據顯示,日本消費者價格指數較2月份的40年高點有所下降。有幾個因素促成了通脹的下降,包括政府對公用事業賬單的補貼,日元走強,以及大宗商品價格下跌緩解價格壓力。

核心CPI(不包括波動較大的生鮮食品價格)的通脹在截至2月份的一年中增長了3.1%,大大低於1月份估計的4.2%。這是自2022年9月以來的最低水平,但遠高於日本央行2%的年度目標。相比之下,包括生鮮食品在內的CPI在截至2月份的12個月裡上漲了3.3%,低於1月份的4.3%。因此,2月份的CPI通脹率環比下降了0.6%。

這一估計與早些時候的數據一致。此前數據顯示,東京的通脹在2月份達到40多年來的高點後有所下降,東京的通脹是日本其他地區的領先指標。

能源行業價格帶來影響

由於日本額外提供了2萬億日元補貼,以減輕高通脹對經濟的影響,通脹率較低的主要因素是能源價格較上月下降了近19%。此外,由於全球大宗商品價格大幅下跌,日本公用事業公司降低了進口費用,導致天然氣價格下降6.5%,燃料費用下降11%。

值得注意的是,由於人們擔心全球銀行危機可能減緩經濟發展並損害石油需求,石油價格上星期跌至15個月來的最低點。相比之下,天然氣價格在今年早些時候跌至幾乎創紀錄的低點。

此外,日元走強和美元壓力減輕也有助於日本進口價格下降。週五,美元/日元達到了130。

美元/日元走勢預測

最新的通脹數據支持了日本央行在近期領導層換屆的情況下維持超寬鬆貨幣政策的決定。儘管隨著1月份通脹飆升至近42年高點,日本央行面臨著越來越大的收緊政策的壓力,但它在2月份的會議上保持了超寬鬆政策,並表示,由於政府補貼,通脹壓力可能在短期內減輕。

日本央行認為,到2025年年中,價格壓力才會接近2%的目標範圍,並預計通脹將在2023年底或2024年初再次上升。最近,不斷上升的通貨膨脹損害了日本經濟,導致2022年第四季度的GDP幾乎沒有增長。因此,市場認為日本央行將維持超寬鬆的貨幣政策。儘管如此,美元依然疲軟,這可能在短期內利好日元。假設美元/日元跌破130位支撐位,將打開更低的價位。

USDJPY-4 Hourly Chart

美元/日元4小時圖

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