差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美國CPI公佈在即,通脹如何影響外匯市場?

外匯市場目前正處於幾十年來最糟糕的時期。 由於通脹率上升導致美聯儲堅持加息,其他貨幣對美元的價格正在下跌。 歐洲和英國的加息步伐沒有跟上美國,歐元和英鎊的匯率出現了大幅折價。

歐元兌美元已經跌至20年來的最低點,今天亞洲交易時段的價格創下新低,為1.0037美元。 由於能源領域的高通脹率,歐洲經濟無疑處於衰退的邊緣。 歐洲的能源成本大幅上升,特別是隨著俄羅斯關閉諾德斯特龍1號天然氣管道進行短期維護。 受高通脹威脅的困擾,歐元兌美元仍處於下跌趨勢,許多分析師預計美元匯價即將超過歐元。

英國經濟也未能倖免。 英鎊匯率已跌至幾十年來的最低水準,目前為1.186美元。

受通脹災難的拖累,英國零售額出現了前所未有的高速下滑,甚至在大流行危機期間也沒有出現過。 消費者削減開支,銷售額急劇下降。 商品和服務的價格目前處於40年來的最高水準,5月份通脹率達到9.1%。

亞洲市場同樣感受到壓力,人們越來越擔心經濟即將衰退,以及新冠病毒在中國部分地區(尤其是上海)的傳播可能引發的封鎖擔憂,已經放緩了經濟增長,使澳元兌美元跌至26個月來的最低點0.6713美元。 投資者等待明天發佈的就業變化報告,以確定能否帶來支撐。

自4月份以來,美國政策制定者一直試圖通過積極加息來消除通脹對經濟的影響,但這似乎不是解決辦法。 美元對其他貨幣的匯率有所上升,但通貨膨脹仍在持續。

週三將公佈的美國消費者價格指數(CPI)報告是一份重要的宏觀經濟報告,它將揭示美國在對抗通脹方面取得的進展。 CPI顯示了消費者購買的商品和服務的價格。 這份報告無疑是衡量通貨膨脹最準確的方法之一。

美國通脹率在6月份同比增長6.8%,5月份為6.6%。 目前,市場預計通脹率會放緩,美國上週五公佈了強勁的就業數據。 6月非農就業人數變化為372K,遠高於市場預期的268K,雖然低於384K的前值。

失業率穩定在3.6%。 在通脹率不斷上升的情況下,平均時薪似乎沒有任何改善,從之前的5.3%下降到5.1%。

本周的CPI數據將決定美聯儲是否會在7月份再次大幅加息。

目前對CPI的預測是環比增長1.1%,而前值是1.0%。

CPI數據會對歐元、美元和英鎊美元產生什麼影響?

投資者經常會提前預測市場走勢。 這可以解釋今天歐元/美元和英鎊/美元在亞洲交易時段突然下跌的原因。 投資者擔心CPI數據表明通脹繼續上升。 正如美聯儲在上一個會議期間所說的那樣,通脹率的進一步上升將迫使他們在7月份再次加息75個基點。 因此,CPI報告更高的結果將是歐元美元和英鎊美元的大幅下跌趨勢。

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