差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

2023年恆生指數交易展望

隨著恆生指數的反彈,2022年即將結束。這是我們對2023年香港藍籌股指數的展望。

隨著中國內地和香港取消新冠肺炎疫情防控規定,亞洲股市以上漲結束了今年。第一季度可能會放緩,但隨著經濟數據的跟進,這些指數將積聚動能。

HK50月圖

HK50 – Monthly Chart

我們可以從月線圖上看到,HK50指數支撐點在16000-18000之間的強勢區域。該指數可能會整固近期的漲幅並下跌,低點可能在2023年出現。

摩根士丹利分析師目前增持亞洲新興市場股票,而非發達市場股票,原因是他們“更有信心新一輪牛市週期正在開始”。野村證券(Nomura)分析師還認為,西方經濟衰退的預期將使亞洲股市表現更好,因為股市估值更低,基本面前景更好。

對於未來一年的經濟增長,高盛預計中國2023年的潛在增長率為4.5%,而2022年為3.3%。與此同時,摩根士丹利估計,2023年中國GDP增速將為5.4%。這些估計是在最近重新開放之前做出的。

繼中國內地之後,香港本週取消了幾乎所有的新冠限制。從周四開始,遊客將不再需要進行強制性的PCR檢測。疫苗通行證制度也將被取消,但在公共場所強制佩戴口罩的做法仍將繼續。這對這座城市來說是一個戲劇性的舉動,並將影響全球經濟。

香港面臨的一個不利因素可能是美元與港元的聯繫匯率制度。對沖基金經理比爾•阿克曼表示:“聯繫匯率制對香港不再有意義,它被打破只是時間問題。”一些人質疑,現在是否到了停止輸入美國經濟政策的時候。香港現在與中國內地更加同步。儘管如此,香港的利率從0.5%上升到4.75%,跟隨美聯儲,當時香港經濟疲軟,中國處於封鎖狀態。

投資者需要記住未來一年圍繞聯繫匯率制的更重要的宏觀問題,並專注於以這樣的估值購買頂級港股。交易員也可以通過尋找更多關鍵的中國經濟數據帶來的上行反彈而獲利。

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