差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

黃金價格在亞洲時段創下新高

黃金價格週一在亞洲市場飆升至創紀錄高位,延續了近期的漲勢。 市場押注聯準會可能最快在2024年3月開始降息,儘管聯準會官員仍持謹慎態度。

最近幾個交易日金價大幅上漲,原因是通膨放緩、勞動力市場數據疲軟,以及聯準會發出的一些不那麼強硬的訊號,引發了人們對聯準會將在2024年初降息的猜測。

近期對黃金的需求也受到了美國軍艦和商船在紅海遇襲的提振,該事件加劇了人們對以色列與哈馬斯戰爭升級的擔憂。

上週五,聯準會主席鮑威爾重申,美國利率將在更長時間內維持在高水準。 但他在訊號上的一些變化——主要是承認在抑制通膨和美國經濟可能「軟著陸」方面取得了進展——強化了人們的預期,即聯準會將在12月不再升息,並可能在 2024年3月前開始降息。

XAUUSD Daily chart

現貨金跳漲近2%,至每盎司2,148.78美元的歷史高點,2月黃金期貨也跳漲2%,至每盎司2,151.20美元的歷史高點。 到美國東部時間19:16(格林尼治標準時間00:16),交易價格都略低於高點。

金價上周大幅上漲,11月已連續第二個月上漲。

聯準會可能在3月降息,但本週將有更多經濟線索出爐。

芝加哥商品交易所集團的Fedwatch工具顯示,聯邦基金期貨價格顯示,Fed在12月維持利率不變的可能性為97%,降息25個基點至5% – 5.25%區間的可能性為60%。 相較之下,交易員一週前預計3月降息的可能性為21%。

考慮到利率上升推高了投資黃金的機會成本,降息的前景對黃金來說是個好兆頭。 在過去一年裡,隨著聯準會開始大舉升息,這一觀點重創了金價。

但在此期間,市場仍有許多經濟訊號需要應對。 11月非農就業數據——衡量勞動市場的重要指標——將於本週稍後公佈,而今年剩餘時間的通膨數據也將在未來幾週內公佈。

勞動市場的某些方面依然強勁。 同時,通膨也輕鬆地保持在聯準會的年度目標之上——如果這種趨勢持續下去,將降低聯準會提前降息的可能性。

聯準會將於12月中旬召開會議。

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