差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

歐元/美元為歐央行決議做準備

由於週四歐洲央行會議的召開,歐元兌美元將面臨動蕩的一周。在此之前,週三將公佈第二季度GDP終值。eurusd price chart

歐元/美元週圖

歐元兌美元近期走勢掙扎,在美元大幅升值後,歐元兌美元匯率一直低於1:1。美聯儲加息速度加快,美國國內經濟狀況也有所好轉,歐洲在冬季面臨著天然氣短缺的風險。

對於歐元來說,本周可能是具有歷史意義的一周,預計政策制定者將推進歐元區歷史上最大規模的加息。儘管歐洲央行在上次會議上出人意料地更大升息,但分析師仍認為歐洲央行在利率方面落後於形勢。路透社一項調查顯示,三分之二的受訪者說,歐洲央行對通貨膨脹採取的行動過於緩慢。歐元區通貨膨脹率為9.1%,創40年來新高。

經濟學家目前預計,在本週9月8日的會議上,歐央行將加息75個基點。荷蘭國際集團經濟學家Carsten Brzeski稱,歐洲央行將概述其”繼續加息以降低通脹”的計劃。 “懸而未決的問題仍然是,在越來越像是嚴重的冬季衰退的情況下,歐洲央行的反應將會是怎樣。”

德國央行行長約呼籲積極加息:貨幣政策必須作出果斷反應,以保持通脹目標的可信度,來自多個國家的數據顯示,提前加息可以降低經濟陷入痛苦低迷的風險。

他說:我們不應該因為擔心可能的衰退而推遲進一步加息,通脹率不會自行回到央行的通脹目標。

歐元目前的走勢是下行的,而且可能面臨進一步下跌的風險。如果市場已經預期升息75個基點,那麼這週的議息會議就不存在意外因素。較小幅度的加息將為美元提供額外支撐。儘管如此,歐元正面臨0.98之前的主要支撐位,交易員應該對歐元美元的反彈保持警惕。

美國供應管理學會(ISM)週二將公佈美國經濟非製造業PMI數據,預計該指數仍將高於55。預計週三公佈的歐元國內生產總值(GDP)數據將較季度水平略有改善,達到0.6%。

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