差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

歐元兌美元匯率跟隨各國央行而動

跟隨央行利率前景,歐元兌美元匯率可能會出現一些波動。

EURUSD – Daily Chart

歐元兌美元-日線圖

歐元兌美元如預期測試了1.0720的支撐位。 接下來的幾個交易日將決定是否已經創下低點,或者我們將看到進一步的低點。

在歐元區通膨數據和美國ISM服務業PMI數據公佈之前,歐元兌美元週三可能會進行區間交易。

丹斯克銀行的外匯分析師認為,歐元兌美元匯率在兩個月內可能會升至1.10,但在12個月內可能會跌至1.05。 由於聯準會發表強硬言論,荷蘭國際集團分析師認為歐元兌美元近期有下跌空間。 聯準會理事沃勒上週在評論中採取了鷹派立場。 根據沃勒的說法,聯準會需要看到至少兩個月的數據,以確定通膨正朝著2%的方向發展,在支持降息之前,有必要取得更多進展。

丹斯克銀行仍預計,隨著經濟惡化,聯準會將退出;「我們預計,當前的反通膨趨勢將允許聯準會在5月份比市場預期更早降息,隨後在年內還會有兩次季度降息。短期內 ,我們認為聯準會提前降息的可能性對該貨幣對構成了上行風險,或許市場對美國例外論過於樂觀,對歐元區和中國的經濟數據過於悲觀。”

“然而,從戰略上講,我們維持對美元的積極偏好,因為相對於世界其他地區,結構性增長的情況似乎明顯更為強勁。”

荷蘭國際集團分析師表示:“在今年頭幾個月,較好的經濟活動數據和粘性價格支撐了美元利率和美元。”

然而,聯準會今年的降息舉措讓一些分析師預計美元將走弱。 法國農業信貸銀行預計,聯準會和歐洲央行將在2024年開始降息。 它補充說,歐元“將成為2024年表現最差的貨幣之一,原因是歐洲央行的政策立場更加溫和,以及對歐元區前景的持續擔憂。”

高盛分析師表示:「就目前而言,我們仍然認為,美元持續貶值最清晰的途徑將是海外市場的周期性表現優於美國,同時美國通膨有所緩解。但是,這條路上有很多顛簸。 」

歐元兌美元本週應該會有一些重要的變動,因為它在關鍵支撐位附近交易。

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