差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

澳元/日元在澳聯儲意外加息後上漲

在澳大利亞儲備銀行意外加息後,澳元兌日元匯率出現了反彈。

AUDJPY – Daily Chart

澳元兌日元 – 日線圖

澳元/日元上漲至 92 上方,阻力位目標為 93,接下來可能會測試該水平。

在上個月暫停加息後,澳大利亞儲備銀行再次加息,震驚了借款人和金融市場。央行將現金利率目標從 3.6% 上調至 3.85%,這是一年內第 11 次加息。自 2012 年 5 月下調至 3.75% 以來,官方利率從未達到過這個水平或更高水平。此舉令許多交易員感到意外,因為市場預計的加息可能性僅為 13%。

大多數銀行經濟學家預計利率將保持不變,但兩家重要銀行表示利率已達到 3.6% 的峰值。

上週的通脹下降讓交易員預計澳大利亞央行不會採取任何行動。然而,央行行長 菲利普·洛(Philip Lowe) 表示,委員會上個月暫停了評估先前上漲對經濟的影響。穩定的就業和通貨膨脹數據意味著央行必須繼續加息。

“澳大利亞的通脹率已經過了峰值,但 7% 的水平仍然過高,要回到目標範圍內還需要一段時間,”他說。

“鑑於在合理的時間內使通脹回到目標的重要性,委員會認為今天有必要進一步提高利率。”

“可能需要進一步收緊貨幣政策,以確保通脹在合理的時間範圍內回到目標,但這將取決於經濟和通脹如何演變,”Lowe 先生補充道。

競爭對手 德勤諮詢經濟學負責人普拉迪普·菲利普(Pradeep Philip)表示,澳洲聯儲現在面臨經濟衰退的風險。

“今天的加息表明儲備銀行仍在玩衰退輪盤賭,儘管它在上個月暫停加息時短暫而明智地離開了退縮”。

“與此同時,隨著大流行時期的低固定利率恢復為變量,而企業繼續受到擠壓,數十萬抵押貸款持有人仍將看到他們的還款額激增。

“在失業率仍處於創紀錄低位的情況下,上週的 CPI 數據顯示通脹明顯放緩是一件好事。而且,正如澳洲聯儲聲明所指出的那樣,儘管失業率創歷史新低,但工資增長並未螺旋上升,並且仍然符合通脹目標。”

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