差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

央行动态指引下,纽元兑美元汇率备受关注

纽元兑美元汇率周三聚焦央行决议,该货币对在关键支撑位交投。

NZDUSD – Daily Chart

纽元兑美元-日线图

纽元兑美元已经跌破支撑位0.5860。这将是该货币对反弹或进一步走低的关键。

美联储在香港时间凌晨3点公布了最新一次会议纪要,交易员们正在寻找12月降息的线索。11月7日,该委员会再次放松货币政策,将利率下调25个基点,此前9月的大幅降息令市场措手不及。

美联储政策制定者指出,劳动力市场“总体上有所缓和”,而通胀似乎正朝着美联储2%的目标迈进。美联储可能担心最近的战争紧张局势,因为这在2021-22年引发了通胀问题。

特朗普在11月的大选中获胜,引发了人们对美国关税、宽松财政政策和商业放松管制的预期,这些都可能加剧通胀压力。

接下来,新西兰储备银行将于香港时间上午8点公布利率决定和货币政策公告。

德国商业银行分析师Volkmar Baur表示,政策谈话将比利率决定更重要。

纽储行将现金利率下调25个基点。然而,正在认真考虑加息50个基点的迹象确实让一些人感到意外。作为一个小型的开放经济体,新西兰经常是第一个认识到全球经济变化的国家之一。通常情况下,央行并不羞于应对不断变化的环境。今年夏天,新西兰央行暗示将降息50个基点,这被证明是美联储的一个预兆,美联储在9月份降息50个基点,令市场感到意外。”

在10月份的上次会议上,纽储行暗示将降息50个基点。明天上午,纽储行将举行今年最后一次政策会议,声明可能比决策本身更有趣。”

然而,市场预计降息50个基点,央行对前景的看法将更为重要。

“在2月份的下一次会议上再降息50个基点,4月份再降息25个基点,到夏天总共降息150个基点(6次降息25个基点),市场几乎完全消化了这一预期。”考虑到最近通胀和经济增长的放缓,我认为这是合理的。然而,如果纽储行将重点放在国际风险加剧及其对新西兰通胀的影响上,市场可能会被迫重新考虑利率前景,”Volkmar补充道。

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