差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

欧元兑美元在资金流动中测试关键阻力位

由于与俄罗斯的紧张关系,投资者将美元作为避风港,欧元兑美元汇率已跌至2023年的低点。

EURUSD - Daily Chart

欧元美元-日图

欧元兑美元最近大跌,正在测试2023年10月和1月低点的关键阻力位。价格需要维持在这一水平,否则可能进一步下跌。

欧元兑美元跌至两年低点,因德国和法国的政治动荡也损及欧元。备受关注的11月商业活动调查意外降至48.1,低于9月的50,显示经济再度萎缩。

采购经理人指数(PMI)导致欧元兑美元汇率大跌至近1.03美元,但随后反弹至1.04以上。欧元区政府债券的收益率也出现下跌,因为投资者预期降息的速度会更快。欧洲央行今年已经三次降息至3.25%,并可能进一步降息。

市场目前预计下个月将再次降息25个基点,到2025年底将降至1.75%。荷兰合作银行外汇策略师Jane Foley表示,欧元正朝着与美元平价“迈进一步”。

欧洲最大经济体德国的联合政府本月垮台,选举要到明年2月才举行。最近,第三季度经济增长率从0.2%下调至0.1%。

随着中国需求的下滑,这个昔日的制造业强国正处于危机之中,其汽车业正在应对向电动汽车的转型。博世是最新一家受到打击的工业公司,宣布裁员3500人,而美国汽车制造商福特也在裁员数千人,福特将关闭多达三家工厂。

在法国,右翼政客威胁要在关于2025年预算的争议中推翻总理米歇尔·巴尼耶的联盟。欧洲的不稳定正促使投资者转向美元,而与俄罗斯的紧张关系也加剧了欧元区的资本外逃。周一早些时候,随着战争的继续激烈,俄罗斯和乌克兰交换了导弹和无人机攻击。

本周的关键指引将是美联储周三的会议纪要,以及当日香港时间下午3点的德国消费者信心指数。

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