差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

密集经济数据即将发布,澳元兑美元下跌

由于澳大利亚和美国的经济数据安排密集,澳元兑美元汇率近期遭遇阻力。

AUDUSD - Daily Chart

澳元兑美元-日线图

澳元兑美元在0.65260找到阻力位,目前在0.65之前面临上行支撑线。如果数据支持美元,该汇价可能在0.6475附近开启更低水平。

首批数据将于香港时间周一上午8点公布,其中包括一些澳大利亚通胀和建筑许可数据。上午8:30的高水平数据是最新的零售销售,预计增长0.3%。

美国数据将先于周二公布,ISM制造业数据将于香港时间晚上11点公布。该指数预计将升至47.5,上升1点,但仍低于50的扩张水平。

周三香港时间上午8:30,澳大利亚将公布GDP增长数据。由于澳大利亚经济增长速度只有人口增长速度的一半,联邦银行发出了警告。除疫情外,随着工作场所产出放缓,经济增速降至1991年经济衰退以来的最低水平。

情况不太可能很快好转,联邦银行澳大利亚经济主管Gareth Aird表示,截至今年9月,澳大利亚经济仅增长了1.1%。该国最大的银行写道,经济增长率将“远低于”2.3%的人口增长率,这表明大量涌入的外国人对经济增长的作用微乎其微。

在周四会议之前,美国供应管理学会服务业PMI将从预期的56降至55.5。服务业PMI数据对美国经济更为重要,因为70%的经济是由服务业驱动的。

周五晚间将公布美国就业数据。交易商可以从周四公布的初请失业金人数数据中初步了解市场表现。

法国兴业银行表示,利润预期与迅速降息的可能性相矛盾。

“从历史上看,当美国明年降息到市场预期的程度时,美国利润会下降10%,但市场普遍认为明年每股盈利将增长15% !”该行分析师Andrew Lapthorne表示。

本周的数据可能会让美元在触及阻力位后进一步上涨。

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