美元在关键CPI数据前持稳

美国首次申领失业救济人数大幅回落,缓解了人们对世界最大经济体即将陷入衰退的担忧,周五美元趋于稳定,接近一个月来的高点。

在美国东部时间04:15(格林尼治标准时间09:15),美元指数,跟踪美元对其他六种货币的一篮子货币,基本保持在103.007不变,距离此前劳动力市场数据公布前的水平不远。

首次申请失业救济人数下降,缓解了对硬着陆的担忧

周四公布的数据显示,8月3日当周初请失业金人数减少1.7万人,经季节调整后为23.3万人,为约11个月来最大降幅。

这有助于缓解人们的担忧,即美国经济正走向硬着陆,且上月底决定不降息的美联储已落后于形势。

荷兰国际集团分析师在一份报告中表示:“昨日首次申请失业救济人数的异常巨大反应,证明市场目前对有关美国宏观前景的各种迹象极度敏感。”

下周,人们的注意力将转向最新的消费者价格指数报告,交易员将寻求有关美联储未来可能行动的更多指引。

荷兰国际集团补充说:“我们可以合理地预计,市场对下周美国核心CPI数据的反应将会很明显,即使是与市场普遍认为的环比0.2%的误差很小(0.2个百分点)。”

美联储在下次政策会议上降息50个基点的几率略高于50%,目前认为降息25个基点的几率为46%。

欧元区经济最新动态

在欧洲,欧元兑美元小幅下滑至1.0917,而在本周初,欧元兑美元自1月2日以来首次升至1.1009。

eurusd chart

欧元兑美元4小时图

欧洲央行今年6月开始降息,许多人预计决策者将在9月会再次降息。

意大利7月份欧盟统一消费价格环比下降0.9%。同比增长1.6%,表明这个欧元区第三大经济体的通胀压力有限。

英镑兑美元上涨0.2%,至1.2768,延续了隔夜0.5%的涨幅,从一个多月低点反弹。

GBPUSD chart

英镑兑美元4小时图

美元兑日元和美元兑人民币走势

在亚洲,美元兑日元下跌0.1%,至147.20,仍高于本周早些时候141.60左右的低点。

USDJPY chart

美元兑日元4小时图

日元汇率出现逆转之际,日本央行官员表示,他们不会在市场波动期间加息,缓和了日本央行在7月底会议上发出的鹰派信息。

不过,尽管本周日元走弱,但日元兑美元在过去一个月仍录得显著升幅,尤其是在全球套息交易开始解除之际。

美元兑人民币小幅下跌至7.1739,数据显示中国7月份消费者价格指数增长超过预期,而生产者价格指数通胀下降幅度略低于预期。

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