美元指數將迎來重要的一周

美元指數在觸及關鍵的100點前的阻力位後,可能面臨關鍵的一週。

 

美元指數-週線圖

美元在99.80遇到了阻力位,未來一周可能很重要。美元可能會再次開始調整,這可能會首先瞄準97.00的水平。

美元最近逼近100美元的水平,導致比特幣和股票等資產出現拋售。如果美元指數走強,可能代表加密貨幣、股票和黃金都可以上漲。

根據CME的Fedwatch工具,聯準會降息的可能性目前約為87.6%,低於10月中旬時的97%。該工具根據聯邦基金期貨價格的變化預測降息,並顯示降息的可能性略高。

在聯準會未來降息預期最近發生轉變之前,由於政府停擺,聯邦經濟數據已經中斷了六週。上個月,聯準會主席鮑威爾表示,12月降息並非“定局”,理由是有跡象表明就業市場穩定。

「鑑於今天的數據不像擔心的那麼糟糕,再加上聯準會最近的鷹派言論,看來聯準會不會在12月降息,」晨星公司首席美國經濟學家Preston Caldwell表示。

「但由於勞動市場的負面趨勢仍然存在,我們預計聯準會如果不在今年12月降息,將在2026年1月的下一次會議上恢復降息,」他補充說。

最近美元走強的同時,加密貨幣價格也在下跌。但金價已再度走高,美元走軟可能刺激這種貴金屬進一步走強。

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