白银价格面临被近期价位拒绝的风险

上周五,银价跌至63美元,在美联储降息后增加了回调风险。

XAGUSD - Daily Chart

现货白银 -日线图

现货白银价格已经从63美元的水平被拒绝,并且可能会回落以测试之前的高点。

美联储上周召开会议,鲍威尔设法在12月10日获得了今年第三次降息25个基点的投票。彭博社报道称,最终多数为9比3,但微弱的异议表明,并非所有政策制定者都同意最新的降息。

摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益投资组合经理Priya Misra对《华尔街日报》表示:“我们在会议开始时期待的是‘鹰派’降息。”

一位投票反对降息的美联储官员现在表示,他预计利率“明年可能会大幅下降”。

芝加哥联邦储备银行行长古尔斯比在一份声明中表示,他预计2026年的降息幅度将超过他的一些同事。他表示,他反对上周12月的降息,因为他希望等待更多的通胀数据。

声明称:“鉴于通胀已经超过我们的目标四年半了,进一步的进展已经停滞了几个月,而且我们最近在该地区与之交谈的几乎所有商人和消费者都认为价格是一个主要问题,我认为更谨慎的做法是等待更多信息。”

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地缘政治不确定性加剧,黄金突破4900美元创历史新高

周四,黄金价格飙升至每盎司4900美元以上的新高,延续了过去一年来令人瞩目的涨势,金价累计上涨超过70%。据主要市场数据来源显示,现货价格在最新一轮上涨中一度达到每盎司4920美元至4950美元的区间。 此次金价飙升主要归因于多种因素的共同作用,包括地缘政治紧张局势升级、市场对美联储降息的预期不断增强以及美元走软。随着实际收益率的下降,持有黄金的机会成本降低,而美元走软则使黄金对非美国投资者更具吸引力。

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