香港股市遭遇技术性调整

中国股市近期的飙升遭遇阻力,上证综指和恒生指数出现了一些获利回吐。

HK 50 - Daily Chart

香港50日线图

香港50指数跌至20926点,此前曾在2023年2月的高点22691点遭遇阻力。市场波动非常快,关注距离20日移动均线19344。

香港股市暴跌9.4%,创下2008年全球金融危机以来最糟糕的一天。

沪深两市周二开盘,开盘20分钟成交量突破1万亿元(1410亿美元)。这推动蓝筹股沪深300指数最初上涨了10%。然而,香港股市的大幅抛售迅速打击了投资者的情绪。

尽管近期波动较大,但自政府宣布一系列货币刺激措施以支撑股票和房地产市场以来,沪深300指数上涨了约25%。

高盛分析师表示,股市的预期市盈率仅为11倍,看起来仍然很便宜,低于目前20倍的水平。此外,截至8月底,共同基金在中国股市的配置处于10年来的最低水平。由于此前中国经济放缓,许多分析师对前景感到悲观。

但真正的问题是,中国政府已承诺实施强有力的刺激措施,外国投资者应该会开始回归。周二股市10%的下跌是由投机波动推动的,市场现在将寻找买家在较低的水平上回归。

高盛上调了对MSCI中国指数的预测,目前预计总回报率将在当前水平的基础上达到15%左右。摩根士丹利等其他投资银行认为,中央政府将很快在未来几周内宣布一项人民币2万亿元的财政刺激计划,而一家国有智库的官员则认为规模将接近10万亿元。

在国家发改委周二举行的新闻发布会上,没有提及任何进一步的行动,这对股市造成了打击。但若有如此规模的救市计划,可能会导致股市在触底后再次上涨,而触底后可能离当前水平不远,此前市场因超买而大幅抛售。

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