疲弱的美国非农就业引发美联储降息押注,欧元兑美元大涨

关键要点:美国就业增长大幅放缓,对前几个月数据的下修,以及疲弱的制造业数据推动交易员消化美联储大幅降息,推动欧元兑美元走高,尽管欧元区通胀持稳。


上周五,在美国弱于预期的就业报告引发美联储今年将多次降息的预期后,欧元兑美元大涨逾1%。欧元兑美元实时图表显示汇价从1.1391攀升至1.1554,接下来看是否触及数周以来的最高水平1.1597。

7月非农就业数据显示,美国经济仅增加7.3万个就业岗位,远低于11万个的预期。对5月和6月数据的修正减少了25.8万个就业岗位,失业率上升至4.2%。平均时薪同比增长3.9%,表明工资压力持续存在。

根据Prime Market Terminal的数据,报告发布后,期货市场预计美联储将在12月前降息62个基点,9月降息25个基点的可能性为76%。尽管欧元区通胀数据强于预期。总体消费者价格协调指数(HICP)同比保持在2.4%,核心HICP保持在2.0%。这次反弹主要是由美元疲软推动的。

供应管理协会公布美国制造业连续第五个月录得萎缩,密西根大学消费者信心指数略低于预期,为61.7,这进一步加剧了对美元的看跌情绪。

美联储官员给出了不同的回应。克利夫兰联邦储备银行总裁哈马克称就业报告“令人失望”,但强调就业市场“大致平衡”,而亚特兰大联邦储备银行总裁博斯蒂克则暗示支持今年只降息一次,称通胀风险持续存在。

西班牙和意大利制造业指标的改善进一步支撑了欧元的走强,而德国和法国则出现了更大幅度的下滑,突显出欧元区内部的复苏好坏参半。

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由于鲍威尔中性基调削弱美元,欧元兑美元反弹

欧元兑美元周二攀升至1.16上方,受助于美联储主席鲍威尔的谨慎政策立场,以及法国政治紧张局势暂时缓和,此前法国政府暂停了备受争议的养老金改革。 鲍威尔在一个经济论坛上发表讲话,重申了“逐次会议”的利率决策方式,并表示劳动力市场的风险现在比通胀担忧更重要。虽然他指出,经济仍比预期强劲,但他承认就业方面的脆弱性日益增加,这增强了人们对进一步放松货币政策的预期。

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