“法国脱欧”担忧重燃,欧元兑日元汇率走跌

由于对法国退出欧元区的担忧再次燃起,欧元兑日元汇率跟随下跌。

EURJPY - Daily Chart

欧元兑日元-日线图

欧元兑日元已经失去了在11月下旬的强势,正在跌至158.20的支撑位。若跌至低于156左右的水平,可能会创下年内低位。

随着国家预算和持续的财政危机的斗争,法国与德国的10年期收益率差飙升至超过85个基点,这是自欧洲金融危机以来的最高水平,再次引发了对“法国退欧”的担忧。

法国政府正面临更高的借贷成本,因为它在议会中缺乏多数席位,这使得它更难实施削减开支和增加税收的措施,而这些措施是减缓该国不断膨胀的预算赤字所必需的。

新上任的总理米歇尔·巴尼耶说:

如果对他的政府进行不信任投票,“金融市场可能会出现相当严重的风暴和严重动荡”。

“如果政府垮台,将采取紧急措施”,这将失去全年的支出。

彭博社表示,巴尼耶的政治生存取决于其竞争对手勒庞在未来几周内提交2025年政府和社会保障预算法案的最终版本时支持可能的不信任投票的计划。勒庞曾表示,如果她更好地保护家庭的要求得不到满足,将推翻他的政府。

勒庞对法国政府增加电力税、降低医疗补助、推迟养老金与通胀挂钩的计划表示愤怒。她还要求采取额外措施来解决移民问题。

巴尼耶周二表示,明年电价将下降9%,“我们将看看我们是否能做更多的事情来保持法国人的购买力”。

安联全球投资公司全球首席投资官Greg Hirt表示:“政府很可能再次陷入危险境地。”

最新的灾难发生在法国和德国经济衰退的背景下,而俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张关系也在欧洲的家门口。随着所有这些戏剧性事件的展开,日元之前作为避险货币的地位可能正在恢复。

周四香港时间下午6点将公布欧元消费者信心数据,周五早上7点30分将公布日本通胀和就业数据。

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