欧元兑澳元汇率等待澳储行决议及和欧央行评论

欧元兑澳元汇率聚焦来自澳大利亚储备银行决议和欧洲央行评论的指引。

EURAUD – Daily Chart

欧元兑澳元-日线图

欧元兑澳元在今年阻力位达到1.8100之后一直在下跌。市场正在设定区间,但低点可能尚未出现。

澳储行将在香港时间周二上午11:30召开新闻发布会,这可能会为未来一周的走势奠定基础。

就在发表最新货币政策评论的几天前,参议员就通货膨胀问题向行长布洛克进行了质询。布洛克承认,她的经济学家们没有准确预测通胀目标,而参议员们则问,经济“实验”何时结束。

布洛克表示,澳大利亚央行更关注于创造稳定的失业率,而不是遏制通胀。过去三年,总体通胀率一直处于央行目标区间之外。

她表示:“我认为目前的情况是,我们的失业率为4.3%,目前的通胀率为3.2%,无可否认,而且预计通胀率将在区间内,因此我认为这一策略仍然有效。”

在企业、政府和消费者支出的推动下,截至9月份,澳大利亚经济以两年来最快的速度增长。市场和企业主预计,利率的下一步行动可能是上调,而不是下调。

澳大利亚统计局的数据显示,第三季度的实际国内生产总值比去年同期上升了2.1%。这是自2023年年中以来的最快增速,超过了该行2%的预测。

欧洲央行政策委员Joachim Nagel也将在香港时间下午3点发表讲话,他最近表示,通胀实际上处于欧洲央行的目标水平,预计不会出现波动。目前的趋势是澳元在利率上升的推动下走强,而欧洲央行似乎已经结束了降息举措。这可能会推动欧元兑澳元走低,我们可能还没有看到支撑位。

欧洲经济是澳元获得买盘买入的另一个原因,因为汽车行业正在与特朗普的关税作斗争,制造业仍然疲软。欧洲汽车制造商将25%的汽车出口到美国,但成本上升削弱了出口。

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