尽管PMI数据疲软,中国股市仍走高

中国股市在过去两天上涨,尽管PMI数据是自2022年以来最弱的。

CHINA 50 – Daily Chart
中国50日线图

中国50指数从低点13,147反弹,但阻力位在13,807。13000点是下行的关键。

5月财新/标普全球制造业采购经理人指数PMI从4月的50.4降至48.3,低于路透调查分析师的预期,为去年9月以来首次收缩。受关税影响,这也是该指标32个月来的最低水平。

股市反弹,是因为该数据与上周六发布的中国官方PMI数据基本一致。PMI数据显示,制造业活动连续第二个月下降。中美贸易谈判两周后,财政部长斯科特·贝森特周四表示,谈判“有点停滞”。

中国总理李强上周表示,中国正在研究新的政策工具,包括一些“非常规措施”。

根据最新的财新调查,5月份新出口订单连续第二个月萎缩。这也是自2023年7月以来最快的下降速度。

摩根士丹利首席中国经济学家Robin Xing表示,数据显示,供需失衡仍是一个因素。

“关于需要再平衡的言论越来越多,但最近的事态发展表明,旧的供应驱动模式仍然完好无损。因此,再通胀可能仍然难以捉摸。”

中国股市仍处于盘整阶段,目前没有突破的迹象。由于需求预期,伦敦金属交易所的铝、镍和铜价格下跌,流入上海股市的外国投资继续减少。

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