资金流入持续,中国股市处于十字路口

随着国内和海外资金的强劲流入,中国股市延续了令人印象深刻的涨势。

CHINA 50 – Daily Chart

CN50指数日图

汇集了中国50支股票的CN50指数此前交投在12804点,在上行阻力线12250点附近有支撑。

中国股市受到中国政府市场刺激措施的提振,国内对在香港上市的股票和在美国上市的ETF的投资不断增加。彭博社称,上周流入中国的基金经理投资达到4.88亿美元,是新兴市场国家中最高的。

去年中国经济疲软导致中国股市资金大量流出,到2024年1月达到2180亿元人民币(302亿美元)。今年2月,投资者开始回归,中国当局宣布了稳定市场的措施。

除了对证券借贷的限制和对激进卖空行为的打击之外,国有投资基金还承诺加大股票购买力度。

从2021年的高点来看,股市市值已经损失了2万亿美元。在政府的干预下,截至5月份,资金流出总额已收窄至人民币1,000亿元左右。同期对香港股市的投资也达到了285亿美元。

中国房地产市场的人气也在改善,一些大城市的购房者正在寻找机会,此前中国政府出台了最重大的刺激措施,以拯救陷入困境的房地产行业。

上周五,中国出台了“历史性”措施,包括向国有企业提供人民币3,000亿元(合419亿美元)贷款,用于购买未售出的房地产。政府在刺激措施上行动迟缓,但在经历了三年的艰难之后,市场还是有希望的。

Alpine Macro分析师认为,中国地产股的回报率高于其他行业。然而,他们预计房地产市场会有所缓解,这将有助于整体经济。

“北京住房政策的180度大转弯将有助于减轻开发商的财务压力,并为其资产价格提供支撑。这可能会防止它们成为中国股市意外的负面因素,”他们写道。

腾讯和阿里巴巴等科技公司一直是股价反弹的推动力,但阿里巴巴在下调了部分人工智能产品的价格后,本周下跌了5%。对人工智能领域爆发价格战的担忧并未影响到大盘指数。

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